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????????????????????????????? US jobs data: -Nonfarm payroll for May came in at +138,000 (Reuters poll: +185,000). -April’s payroll revised lower to +174,000 from +211,000. -Jobless rate at 4.3% (Reuters poll: 4.4%). - Fed’s Harker (voter): -Fed's unwinding of balance sheet will be slow and essentially on auto pilot. -Still sees three rate increases in total in 2017. -May payroll report was a good number; job creation is still strong. -Inflation is on track despite recent declines; concern over recent soft inflation data is unwarranted. -Sees reaching inflation goal around end of this year. -The largest risk to the economy is fiscal uncertainty; stocks have been buoyed by hopes for a tax cut; gains could be reversed if fiscal policy doesn't follow through. -Lack of clarity on tax policy is creating ambiguity that could harm business investment. - Fed’s Kaplan (voter): -Says optimistic about ability to renegotiate trade agreements with Mexico, Canada. -We've still got slack but we are moving toward full employment. - NY Times report: -Trump reportedly has chosen Randal Quarles and Marvin Goodfriend for two of three open positions on the Fed Board of Governors. -Both are seen as conservative counterweights to Yellen and have expressed reservations about aggressive Fed actions to restart economic growth since the 2008 crisis. -Goodfriend is a former Fed official who is now an economics professor at Carnegie Mellon. -Quarles is a Treasury Department official from the George Bush administration. - Reuters poll: -18 of 18 US primary dealers surveyed after May payrolls report see Fed hiking interest rates to 1.00-1.25 pct at ""June’s"" meeting. -10 of 18 primary dealers see Fed raising rates to 1.25-1.50 pct at ""Sep"" meeting. -6 of 18 primary dealers see Fed raising rates to 1.25-1.50 pct at ""Dec"" meeting. -6 of 18 dealers see Fed announcement on balance sheet normalization in Sept; rest see such a move in Dec. Goldman Sachs chief economist Hatzius: -Raises estimate on a possible rate hike later this month to 90 percent from 80 percent. -Expects balance sheet announcement in Sept. -Pushes forecast for next hike from Sept to Dec. - CFTC/Reuters: -Speculators raise net short USD bets to largest in nine months. -EUR net longs climb to highest since May 2011. - UK PM May: -General election will go ahead on June 8. - Survation/Mail poll on UK election: -Spread between Conservatives and Labour narrows to 1 point. -Conservatives at 40% (-6 points) while Labour at 39% (+5 points). - Markets: -USD dropped across the board after disappointing jobs data. -USD/SGD lost -0.40% to hit fresh year’s low of 1.3805 before settling at 1.3806. -EUR/USD hit 1.1285, highest level since last November. -GBP/USD closed higher by +0.10% last Friday before ending at 1.2893 but opened lower this morning at 1.2855 after weekend’s terror attach in London. -US 10-year yield crashed to fresh 2017 low, closing lower by 5.8bps at 2.159%. -US stocks continues to march higher, DJIA and S&P 500 are up by +0.29% (21.206) and +0.37% (2439.07) respectively. -Brent crude closed below %50 (at $49.95), the first time since early May.
This message was edited by ferari on 05-Jun-2017 @ 12:21 PM
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