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Posted By Topic: 盘口分析要素(2):盘型定位及方法(上)       - Views: 223 Change Timezone:
RosstonChan 13-Jun 2018 Wednesday @ 4:24 PM (67 days ago)               #1
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第二节 盘型定位及方法

 

  一、盘型受哪些因素影响?

 

  一场比赛到底应该开出什么样的盘口?如何衡量盘口的合理性?带着这些问题,我们可以从以下两个方面去寻找答案。首先,让球盘是由球队的实力因素所决定的,这些因素包括了两队的排名、两队的积分差、主客场成绩、历史交锋记录、近期两队状态、伤停情况等等,正是这些因素决定着谁是让球方、谁是受让方、该让什么球。其次,在球队实力对比的基础之上,博彩公司和大众玩家的因素则是检验盘口合理性的根本标准,这些因素包括了概率、赔率、投注心理、投注比例等,也正是这些因素决定着什么样的胜率让什么盘,盘口与概率是否吻合等等。因此,简而言之,影响的到盘口的因素无外乎就是实力与概率这两个主要原因。

 

  所以,根据实力和概率这两大重要影响因素,我们将盘型定位分析分为:排名和积分结合分析法(实力)、概率分析法。

 

  二、盘型分析的方法

 

  (一)排名与积分结合分析盘型

 

  1、按照排名和积分划分区域:

 

  一般分为:

 

  1 — 4: 上游

 

  4 — 9: 中上游

 

  9 — 15:中下游

 

  16 — 22:下游

 

  2、排名与让球的关系:

 

  若主队比客队排名靠后4名之内,可让半球。差4—6名之内,可让平/半。差6—12名可让平手。若主队比客队排名靠前4名之内,可让半球。靠前4—8名之内,可让半/一。靠前8—12名,可让一球。当主队排名靠后,正常实力让球时,一般让中水、高水。当主队排名靠前,正常实力让球时,一般让低水、中水。

 

  3、主客场的让球关系:

 

  客场时,实力盘下降两等级,例如切尔西主场让维冈一球/球半,客场就得降两级让半球/一球;佛罗主场让阿斯科半/一球,客场降两级,让平/半。

 

  4、最近一轮让球关系

 

  如两队实力都无太大变化时,距两队本次比赛最近的一次交锋时的让球盘,与本轮盘口的关系也很重要。例如利物浦VS埃弗顿在2个月前的让球盘口为一球/球半、本轮比赛却仅开半球/一球,那么利物浦的让球盘就明显开小了。

 

  通过球队实力来核定盘口合理性,能够比较客观的反映两队之间的让球关系。但该方法的缺点是,如果完全依托球队信息去分析盘口的合理性,很可能会被一些表面的东西所迷惑,而忽略了很多场外因素和庄家所掌握的更多信息,很容易单纯站在玩家立场去分析比赛,被大众思维所带动。

 

  因此,就有必要将球队实力对比与庄闲因素相结合来分析盘口的合理性
 


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13-Jun 2018 Wednesday @ 7:15 PM (67 days ago)            #2
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13-Jun 2018 Wednesday @ 9:12 PM (67 days ago)            #3
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13-Jun 2018 Wednesday @ 10:52 PM (67 days ago)            #5
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