*Diamond Member*
Posts: 51526
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Joined: 26 May 08
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Tipsters Championship:
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quote originally posted by nil: Its easy to track the Tipsters performance Below is the AB tipsters' post and results over the weekend note: not include tipster with admin/mod status note: not include in-running, horse tipsters note: win 0.5 and lose 0.5 are simplified as W and L (they would average out in the long run) disclaimer: all effort has been done to ensure accuracy of the information and its just for discussion purpose i should not be held liable for any lost of face or injuries arising from this..:) date | tipster | pick | resuLt | 190412 | 4dtotoman | leicester -0.5 | L | 190412 | 4dtotoman | nurnberg over | L | 190412 | bcm | brisbane win | W | 190413 | bcm | ADELAIDE WIN AT FT | L | 190413 | bcm | ATLETICO -1.5 | W | 190413 | bcm | HANNOVER +1 | D | 190413 | bcm | REIMS +0.5,1 | W | 190413 | bcm | TOTTENHAM -2 | W | 190413 | bcm | UDINESE +1 | D | 190413 | bcm | WOLVES +0,0.5 | L | 190413 | bcm | TOTTENHAM OVER 3 | W | 190414 | bcm | BOLOGNA +0.5 | W | 190414 | bcm | CRYSTAL +1.5 | L | 190414 | bcm | CRYSTAL MATCH UNDER 3 | L | 190414 | bcm | CRYSTAL WIN AT FT | L | 190414 | bcm | FORTUNA +2,2.5 | L | 190414 | bcm | LILLE +0.5,1 | W | 190414 | bcm | LIVERPOOL MATCH UNDER 2.5,3 | W | 190414 | bcm | RAYO +0.5,1 | L | 190412 | bet2fat | schalke -0.25 | L | 190412 | bet2fat | newcastle +0.75 | W | 190412 | bet2fat | newcastle over | L | 190413 | bet2fat | Brighton & Hove Albion - 0-0.5 | L | 190413 | bet2fat | Burnley - 0.5 | W | 190413 | bet2fat | tottenham Hotspur - 2 | W | 190414 | bet2fat | Chelsea + 0.5-1 | L | 190414 | bet2fat | Crystal Palace + 1.5 | L | 190414 | bet2fat | Torino - 0.5 | L | 190412 | billions | lyon -0.5 | L | 190412 | billions | clemont -0 | L | 190412 | billions | leicester -0.75 | L | 190412 | billions | leicester under | W | 190413 | billions | Brighton HA - 0.25 | L | 190413 | billions | Manchester United - 1.25 | L | 190413 | billions | Sevilla - 0.75 | W | 190413 | billions | brighton Over 2.25 | W | 190413 | billions | Barcelona - 0.75 | L | 190414 | billions | Liverpool - 0.75 | W | 190414 | billions | Manchester City - 1.5 | W | 190414 | billions | Sampdoria - 0.25 | W | 190414 | billions | Torino - 0.5 | L | 190414 | billions | liverpool Over 2.5 | L | 190414 | billions | sampdoria Over 2.5 | L | 190412 | boy germany | chicago fire | L | 190412 | boy germany | newcastle over | L | 190412 | boy germany | wellington | L | 190412 | football all | almere city over 2.75 | W | 190413 | football_all | OVER ESPANYOL 2 | W | 190414 | football_all | OVER SASSUOLO 2.5 | L | 190412 | goodyear1 | leicester -0.75 | L | 190412 | goodyear1 | leicester over | L | 190412 | goodyear1 | wellington -1 | L | 190412 | goodyear1 | wellington o3.5 | L | 190413 | goodyear1 | Burnley over 2.5 | L | 190413 | goodyear1 | Fulham over 2.75 | L | 190414 | goodyear1 | Fortuna Dusseldorf +2.25 | L | 190414 | goodyear1 | Crystal Palace +1.5, | L | 190414 | goodyear1 | c.palace over 2.75 | W | 190414 | goodyear1 | Liverpool -0.75 | W | 190413 | goodyear1 | Manchester United over 3 | D | 190414 | hakunamatata | Crystal Palace + 1.5 Ball | L | 190412 | hakunamatata | leicester -0.75 | L | 190412 | hakunamatata | leicester over | L | 190413 | hakunamatata | burnley -0.5 | W | 190413 | hakunamatata | tottenham ov 3.25 | W | 190414 | hakunamatata | Liverpool - 0.75 Ball | W | 190414 | hakunamatata | Liverpool Over 2.75 Ball | L | 190413 | hakunamatata | tottenham -1.75 | W | 190412 | hdao_fish | Mjondalen + 1 | D | 190413 | hdao_fish | Millwall + 3/4 | W | 190414 | jammychiam | Liverpool -0.75 | W | 190412 | jammychiam | newcastle +0.75 | W | 190412 | jammychiam | newcastle under | W | 190413 | Jammychiam | Cardiff +0.5 | L | 190414 | jammychiam | Man City -1.5 | W | 190414 | jammychiam | Man City TG Over 3 | W | 190413 | Jammychiam | Cardiff TG Under 2.5 | W | 190413 | Jammychiam | Man United -1.25 | L | 190413 | jjfoong | burnley -0.5 | W | 190414 | jo chen | Crystal Palace UNDER 2.75 | L | 190414 | jo chen | Hiroshima Sanfrecce+0.25 | W | 190412 | jo chen | newcastle +0.75 | W | 190412 | jo chen | newcastle under | W | 190413 | jo chen | Southampton lvl | W | 190413 | jo chen | Cardiff +0.5 | L | 190413 | jo chen | Everton -0.75 | L | 190413 | jo chen | Jeju United UNDER 2.75 | W | 190413 | jo chen | Machida Zelvia+0.25 | W | 190413 | jo chen | Nagoya Grampus+0.25 | W | 190414 | jo chen | Jubilo iwata+0.25 | L | 190414 | jo chen | Kashima Antler+0.25 | L | 190414 | jo chen | Kyoto Sanga+0.5 | W | 190414 | jo chen | liverpool UNDER 2.5 | W | 190414 | jo chen | Liverpool-0.75 | W | 190414 | jo chen | Melbourne Victory-1.5 | L | 190414 | jo chen | Mito Hollyhock +0.25 | W | 190414 | jo chen | Perth Glory -1.25 | L | 190413 | jo chen | Ryūkyū lvl | D | 190413 | jo chen | Sydney FC-7.5 | L | 190412 | juan mata | leicester -0.75 | L | 190412 | juan mata | wellington | L | 190414 | juan_mata | Bayern Munich -2.25 | W | 190414 | juan_mata | Beijing Guoan -1.75 | L | 190413 | juan_mata | Atletico Madrid -1 | W | 190413 | juan_mata | Dortmund -1.75 | L | 190413 | juan_mata | Feyenoord -2 | L | 190413 | juan_mata | Roma -1 | D | 190413 | juan_mata | SPAL +0.25 | W | 190413 | juan_mata | Western Sydney +0.5 | W | 190414 | juan_mata | Hoffenheim -1.5 | W | 190414 | juan_mata | Lille +0.75 | W | 190414 | juan_mata | Liverpool -0.75 | W | 190414 | juan_mata | Napoli -1.5 | W | 190414 | juan_mata | Perth Glory -1 | D | 190414 | juan_mata | PSV -2.5 | L | 190414 | juan_mata | man c -1.75 | W | 190413 | juan_mata | Brighton -0.25 | L | 190413 | juan_mata | Everton -0.75 | L | 190413 | juan_mata | Man Utd -1.25 | L | 190414 | lumpark | Colorado O2.5 @1.63 (1oK) | W | 190414 | lumpark | c.palace +1.5 | L | 190412 | lumpark | wellington u3.5 | W | 190412 | lumpark | hougang u2.5 | W | 190413 | lumpark | Albirex -1.5 @1.70 | L | 190414 | lumpark | liverpool Tg under 2.5 | W | 190413 | lumpark | Balestier O2.5 @1.60 | W | 190413 | lumpark | Cerezo Win @1.97 | L | 190413 | lumpark | Jeju O2.5 | L | 190412 | master of football 79 | lyon -0.75 | L | 190413 | master of football_79 | spurs -2 | W | 190412 | milan18 | brisbane ht over 1.5 | W | 190412 | milan18 | brisbane over 3.25 | L | 190412 | milan18 | cs 2-2 | L | 190412 | milan18 | cs 2-3 | L | 190412 | milan18 | cs 3-2 | L | 190412 | milan18 | emmen over | L | 190412 | milan18 | lyon over | W | 190412 | milan18 | orebro under | W | 190412 | milan18 | schalke under | W | 190413 | milan18 | Jeonbuk Ft Over 2.5 | L | 190413 | milan18 | BK Hacken Over 2.5 | W | 190414 | milan18 | Gamba Osaka Over 2.5 | L | 190414 | milan18 | Mel Victory Over 3.5 | L | 190413 | milan18 | Spurs -1.75 | W | 190413 | milan18 | spurs, Over 2.5 | W | 190413 | milan18 | wolsburg Over 2.5 | L | 190412 | nice guy | leicester -0.75 | L | 190413 | nice_guy | FULHAM +0.75 | W | 190413 | nice_guy | TOTTENHAM -2 | W | 190413 | nice_guy | WESTHAM +1.25 | W | 190414 | nice_guy | CRYSTAL PALACE +1.75 | L | 190413 | nil | brighton -0.25 | L | 190413 | nil | southampton -0 | W | 190414 | nil | man c -1.75 | W | 190414 | nil | man c over 3.25 | W | 190414 | nil | chelsea +0.75 | L | 190412 | sanwa tips | leicester -0.75 | L | 190413 | sanwa_tips | AC Milan level | W | 190413 | sanwa_tips | Barcelona -3/4 | L | 190414 | sanwa_tips | C.Palace TG under 3.00 | L | 190414 | sanwa_tips | Fiorentina -1/4 | L | 190414 | sanwa_tips | Frankfurt -1 | L | 190413 | sanwa_tips | Brighton -1/4 | L | 190413 | sanwa_tips | Burnley -1/2 | W | 190413 | sanwa_tips | Everton -3/4 | L | 190414 | sanwa_tips | Liverpool -3/4 | W | 190414 | sanwa_tips | fiorentina Tg OVER 2.5 | L | 190414 | sanwa_tips | frankfurt Tg OVER 2.75 | W | 190414 | sanwa_tips | liverpool Tg under 2.5 | W | 190412 | sheringham zhou | granada+0.25 | L | 190412 | sheringham zhou | pescara -0 | D | 190412 | sheringham zhou | union berlin -0.75 | L | 190412 | sheringham zhou | leicester -0.75 | L | 190413 | sheringham zhou | AC Milan, lvl. | W | 190413 | sheringham zhou | ATM -1. | W | 190413 | sheringham zhou | Brighton -1/4, | L | 190413 | sheringham zhou | Burnley -1/2, | W | 190413 | sheringham zhou | Cerezo Osaka -1/4, | L | 190413 | sheringham zhou | Everton -3/4. | L | 190413 | sheringham zhou | Excelsior +3 | L | 190413 | sheringham zhou | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors -1/2, | W | 190413 | sheringham zhou | Malaga -3/4, | L | 190413 | sheringham zhou | Melbourne City -1/4, | L | 190413 | sheringham zhou | Monchengladbach -1 | D | 190413 | sheringham zhou | Nagoya Grampus +1/4. | W | 190413 | sheringham zhou | Osasuna -1/2, | W | 190413 | sheringham zhou | Strasbourg -1/2 | L | 190413 | sheringham zhou | Sydney FC -1/2, | L | 190414 | sheringham zhou | Liverpool -3/4. | W | 190412 | simon1959 | newcastle +0.75 | W | 190412 | simon1959 | newcastle over | L | 190413 | simon1959 | Brighton' -0.25 | L | 190413 | simon1959 | Hotspur -2 | W | 190414 | simon1959 | Liverpool -0.75 | W | 190414 | simon1959 | Liverpool over 2.75 Ball | L | 190414 | simon1959 | Man city -1.5 | W | 190413 | simon1960 | Burnley -0.5 | W | 190413 | six | derby Over 2.75 | W | 190413 | six | jeju o 2.75 | L | 190412 | strong fella | leicester -0.75 | L | 190413 | strong fella | Wolves lvl | L | 190413 | strong fella | Lazio lvl | L | 190413 | strong fella | RB Leipzig -1 | W | 190414 | strong fella | Genoa +0.25 | L | 190414 | strong fella | Liverpool -0.75 | W | 190414 | strong fella | Villarreal lvl | W | 190412 | xryan | Emmen +1/4 | W | 190412 | xryan | Nurnberg +1/4 | W | 190412 | xryan | Newcastle | W | 190412 | xryan | Newcastle U2.5 | W | 190413 | xryan | Adelaide +1/4 | W | 190413 | xryan | Alaves +3/4 | L | 190413 | xryan | Bolton +1.25 | L | 190413 | xryan | Bournemouth +1/4 | W | 190413 | xryan | Cardiff +1/2 | L | 190413 | xryan | Leverkusen -1/2 | W | 190413 | xryan | Middlesbrough -1/2 | W | 190413 | xryan | QPR +1/4 | W | 190413 | xryan | Roma -1 | D | 190413 | xryan | Werder Bremen -1 | D | 190413 | xryan | Wolves 0 | L | 190413 | xryan | WSW +1/2 | W | |
Excluding draw, 103W against 210W&L.... Aggregate hit rate 49%... Random picks would perform equally well PS: 4DTotoman is a Lottery Tipster, so perhaps it isn't compare him against other tipsters.
"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. Theory of Diversification There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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