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Posted By Topic: JOGK, i also use AI to predict tonight: Napoli vs Barcelona       - Views: 231
Fahrenheit 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 7:52 PM (66 days ago)
Data Dunia, JOGK, nil and 1 others  4 Likes  
              #1
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 AB$: 901,562.50
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"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
Data Dunia, JOGK, nil and 1 others  4 Likes  
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Fahrenheit 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 7:53 PM (66 days ago)            #2
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Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1354
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
HomeWork  1 Likes  
 Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 7:55 PM (66 days ago)            #3
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Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1354
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
HomeWork  1 Likes  
 Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 7:58 PM (66 days ago)            #4
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 AB$: 901,562.50
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  		But I will  GO AGAINST AI prediction, & bet on Napoli 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
HomeWork  1 Likes  
 Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 8:10 PM (66 days ago)            #5
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  		Porto vs Arsenal:




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
HomeWork  1 Likes  
 Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 8:11 PM (66 days ago)            #6
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51745
Liked By: 39336
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1354
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
HomeWork  1 Likes  
 Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 8:12 PM (66 days ago)            #7
*Diamond Member*


Posts: 51745
Liked By: 39336
Joined: 26 May 08
Followers: 58



    

Tipsters
Championship:
 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1354
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
HomeWork  1 Likes  
 Like     
Fahrenheit 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 8:13 PM (66 days ago)            #8
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 AB$: 901,562.50
Ranked: #1354
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
HomeWork  1 Likes  
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HomeWork 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 9:34 PM (66 days ago)            #9
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  		what's the question that u type that gave u such detail analysis? 



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Fahrenheit 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 9:38 PM (66 days ago)            #10
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  		quote originally posted by HomeWork:
what's the question that u type that gave u such detail analysis?


Compute the mathematical home/draw/away winning probabilities of "A" vs "B" :
1. Use the Asian Handicap & O/U Statistics section to measure the asian handicap and over/under statistics of the two teams. Compare the values of these metrics for the two teams to derive the difference in their asian handicap and over/under performance and trends.
3. Use the Previous Scores Statistics section to measure the previous scores statistics of the two teams. Compare the values of these metrics for the two teams to derive the difference in their previous scores statistics frequency and distribution.
3. Use the Standings section to measure the standings of the two teams in their respective competitions. Compare the values of these metrics for the two teams to derive the difference in their standings position and performance.
4. Use the Shots, **Shots on Target, **Passes, **Fouls, **Yellow Card, **Red Card, **Dribbles, **Corners, **Offsides, **Header, **Saves, and **Tackles sections to measure the offensive and defensive actions and statistics of the two teams. Compare the values of these metrics for the two team to derive the difference in their offensive and defensive quality and quantity.
5. Use the Same Historical AH & O/U Statistics section to analyze the historical results of the two teams when they faced similar opponents with similar handicap and over/under lines. Count the number of wins, draws, and losses for each team, and then calculate the win rate, draw rate, and loss rate based on these numbers.
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
 
HomeWork  1 Likes  
 Like     
HomeWork 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 9:40 PM (66 days ago)            #11
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
Compute the mathematical home/draw/away winning probabilities of "A" vs "B" :
1. Use the Asian Handicap & O/U Statistics section to measure the asian handicap and over/under statistics of the two teams. Compare the values of these metrics for the two teams to derive the difference in their asian handicap and over/under performance and trends.
3. Use the Previous Scores Statistics section to measure the previous scores statistics of the two teams. Compare the values of these metrics for the two teams to derive the difference in their previous scores statistics frequency and distribution.
3. Use the Standings section to measure the standings of the two teams in their respective competitions. Compare the values of these metrics for the two teams to derive the difference in their standings position and performance.
4. Use the Shots, **Shots on Target, **Passes, **Fouls, **Yellow Card, **Red Card, **Dribbles, **Corners, **Offsides, **Header, **Saves, and **Tackles sections to measure the offensive and defensive actions and statistics of the two teams. Compare the values of these metrics for the two team to derive the difference in their offensive and defensive quality and quantity.
5. Use the Same Historical AH & O/U Statistics section to analyze the historical results of the two teams when they faced similar opponents with similar handicap and over/under lines. Count the number of wins, draws, and losses for each team, and then calculate the win rate, draw rate, and loss rate based on these numbers.


nice! tq for sharing! 
 



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nil 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 10:04 PM (66 days ago)            #12
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  		good luck



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Fahrenheit 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 10:06 PM (66 days ago)            #13
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  		quote originally posted by nil:
good luck

The result seems absurd, so i bet against it 

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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nil  1 Likes  
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JOGK 		21-Feb 2024 Wednesday 10:58 PM (66 days ago)            #14
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  		TBH if i bet the yokohama vs bangkok
i dare not to bet draw
but i see the odds so high so try try lor
😆
 




 
Fahrenheit  1 Likes  
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seelangui 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 11:31 AM (65 days ago)            #15
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
TBH if i bet the yokohama vs bangkok
i dare not to bet draw
but i see the odds so high so try try lor
😆


😂Good try
I don't trust ai
 



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557

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Taurus05 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 11:50 AM (65 days ago)            #16
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  		i use ai predict forecast for yesterday liverpool 3-1 but 4-1 actual result. win a bit but not the correct score. going to try again.



 
Fahrenheit  1 Likes  
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Fkb 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 11:52 AM (65 days ago)            #17
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  		quote originally posted by Taurus05:
i use ai predict forecast for yesterday liverpool 3-1 but 4-1 actual result. win a bit but not the correct score. going to try again.


Which AI tool do you use?



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Fahrenheit 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 11:53 AM (65 days ago)            #18
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  		quote originally posted by Taurus05:
i use ai predict forecast for yesterday liverpool 3-1 but 4-1 actual result. win a bit but not the correct score. going to try again.


What prompt question you type in to generate prediction?
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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   Like     
dragonson 22-Feb 2024 Thursday 11:54 AM (65 days ago)            #19
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
But I will  GO AGAINST AI prediction, & bet on Napoli 

and its draw




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Fahrenheit 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 11:57 AM (65 days ago)            #20
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  		quote originally posted by dragonson:

and its draw


Ya, i win if i bet AH
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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(Est. Oct 2014)
Team Ranked: #51 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
   Like     
LONGSTER 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 11:58 AM (65 days ago)            #21
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:
😂Good try
I don't trust ai
 



That’s why power of AI vs power of Eye powers contest

But u chicken out



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Taurus05 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 12:00 PM (65 days ago)            #22
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  		quote originally posted by Fkb:


Which AI tool do you use?

it is a website claiming to use ai tool. predicd dot com. I combined it with sg odds website. Do not rely on predict alone as it can bring you to holand.

 



 
Fahrenheit  1 Likes  
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seelangui 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 12:01 PM (65 days ago)            #23
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:



That’s why power of AI vs power of Eye powers contest

But u chicken out



U go try yourself la😂I had try 
few rounds already 
Not convinced by it



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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Taurus05 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 12:02 PM (65 days ago)            #24
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
What prompt question you type in to generate prediction?

this one is website give you the predict score. no question need to be type in. It cannot be use alone as it can bring you to holand. I analyse it with sg odds and place the bets.  

 



 
Fahrenheit  1 Likes  
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LONGSTER 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 12:20 PM (65 days ago)            #25
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:
U go try yourself la😂I had try 
few rounds already 
Not convinced by it



I say u post eye power picks

Then Jogk post ai picks

Both post confident picks see who win most within 10 picks



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seelangui 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 12:21 PM (65 days ago)            #26
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  		quote originally posted by Taurus05:
this one is website give you the predict score. no question need to be type in. It cannot be use alone as it can bring you to holand. I analyse it with sg odds and place the bets.  


Ok no headache good 😂
ai tell too much no good result 
 



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
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seelangui 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 12:21 PM (65 days ago)            #27
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:



I say u post eye power picks

Then Jogk post ai picks

Both post confident picks see who win most within 10 picks



U go try with him😂
I don't want to waste energy 



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 東方不敗
(Est. Nov 2013)
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LONGSTER 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 12:43 PM (65 days ago)            #28
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:
U go try with him😂
I don't want to waste energy 



U continue to post eye power picks lah

Simi waste energy lah

So arrogant meh



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LONGSTER 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 12:44 PM (65 days ago)            #29
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seelangui 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 12:50 PM (65 days ago)            #30
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:



U continue to post eye power picks lah

Simi waste energy lah

So arrogant meh


He only post winning only😂​​​​
u free go try your self 
I want to tio toto 
Need a lot of time and energy 
No free Also 
 



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557

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LONGSTER 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 1:05 PM (65 days ago)            #31
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:
He only post winning only😂​​​​
u free go try your self 
I want to tio toto 
Need a lot of time and energy 
No free Also 
 



What u mean ?

He only post winning tickets ?



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JOGK 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 1:08 PM (65 days ago)            #32
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:
😂Good try
I don't trust ai


You lose then 😁😁😁😁😁
 




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JOGK 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 1:12 PM (65 days ago)            #33
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:



What u mean ?

He only post winning tickets ?


At least i got many
ah gui have none
Yet he boasted he can bankrupt pools
😅😅😅😅😅
 




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LONGSTER 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 1:15 PM (65 days ago)            #34
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
At least i got many
ah gui have none
Yet he boasted he can bankrupt pools
😅😅😅😅😅
 



He claims that is the reason why he don’t wana do the challenge



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LONGSTER 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 1:17 PM (65 days ago)            #35
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
At least i got many
ah gui have none
Yet he boasted he can bankrupt pools
😅😅😅😅😅
 



He says u only win Liao then dare come out post ticket



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JOGK 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 1:41 PM (65 days ago)            #36
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  		quote originally posted by LONGSTER:



He says u only win Liao then dare come out post ticket

Ok how many big kill he got last few weeks?
he jealous lah
because my ai kills his eye power

😆😆😆😆😆

 




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LONGSTER 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 2:01 PM (65 days ago)            #37
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
Ok how many big kill he got last few weeks?
he jealous lah
because my ai kills his eye power
😆😆😆😆😆
 



He says he was sick power only left 20%



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seelangui 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 2:44 PM (65 days ago)            #38
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
Ok how many big kill he got last few weeks?
he jealous lah
because my ai kills his eye power

😆😆😆😆😆


U the winner 😂
win more 
 



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
 Member of Team:
 東方不敗
(Est. Nov 2013)
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JOGK 		22-Feb 2024 Thursday 2:50 PM (65 days ago)            #39
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 AB$: 595,312.50
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  		quote originally posted by seelangui:
U the winner 😂
win more 


Ok thanks
but i not that bold to say i can BANKRUPT pools

😆😆😆😆😆
 




   Like     
dragonson 22-Feb 2024 Thursday 4:10 PM (65 days ago)            #40
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
Ya, i win if i bet AH
 

can try again




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dragonson



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