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Posted By Topic: Project 2018       - Views: 565 Change Timezone:
simon2018
29-May 2018 Tuesday @ 9:53 PM (82 days ago)               #1
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  Like many here, gambling has always intrigued me and inspired by Bro Justin ,   I have decided to try and replicate his method of betting as outlined in his earlier thread (“I am really back liao”). The rationale is that by setting strict win and loss targets, risks can be reduced by accumulating small wins frequently.  

So, I finally bit the bullet and bought an annual levy. As you all know, all casino games in Singapore are negative expectation games, meaning house always have a built in advantage.

My game of choice will be baccarat for the simple reason of the lower house edge. My bank roll is 5K and to start, my plan is to bring 1k per session for a unit bet size of $50. My win target will be $200 and downside $1k, which statistically give me an approximate 80% chance of win, and 20% of losing1k. With odds like that, some of the bros and sis here will quickly call out that the EV (expected value) is negative because:

EV = 80%*(200) -20%*(1000) = -40.

so it means that in the long run, I will lose.

One popular way to “defeat” the negative EV is by using betting systems, like the infamous Martingale, Cancellation, paroli and 1-3-2-4.  But I am not a big believer of systems.

so, I’m left with the next option, which is using correct bet selection to overcome the edge. And this is where it gets “chim”.  Popular methods are card counting both absolute and running, card tracking by seeing which cards come out already to gauge whether player or banker is more advantageous. Another very popular method is trend spotting which I’m sure most baccarat players are familiar with. One more is to follow or chop dragon after x times.

I personally believe that card tracking should work better as this method makes an “independent outcome” game like baccarat, more “dependant” and this is the method that I would choose to experiment with to improve my bet selection.

As it s still early, please do not ask me about how to track cards. I would post regularly my results and if they are positive and robust, then of course can share.

Until next time, wish me luck


_--------_

   



justin11sg
30-May 2018 Wednesday @ 1:26 AM (82 days ago)            #2
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good luck bro.. nice work


_--------_

Du Ye
Let the fightback begins. fcon 1 damage control activated


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simon2018
30-May 2018 Wednesday @ 9:23 PM (81 days ago)            #3
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30th May

Went and sat down in front of those machines, all excited and raring to go but it was mid-shoe.... 

Boy! It was really a test of control just sitting and not putting a bet. Finally shoe ended, and I dutifully put in my 5x$100 bills.

Shoe #1 

1st bet ho say! Up $50, good start. Forgot how many hands I played but in the range of 20-25, using mostly $50 bets but few hands $25 and 2 or 3 hands of $100.  At end of shoe, up $250

Shoe #2

Repeat the process and similar hands and bet size, end of shoe, up another $122.5

Show #3

Can feel a bit tired and told myself this is last shoe. Will leave at once my profit drop back to $200 or I hit $700 in total profit.  So repeat process and won first two,three hands.  So now, my cumulative bal is about $1050.  May be tired or adrenaline or I don’t know, I told myself to whack $150 to make it an even $1200 then go. Lost! KNN! Then I told myself, whack one more time, if lose, just keep $200 profit then go.  Fast forward two hands, I printed out a ticket for $1200.

Summary

I am happy with shoe 1 and 2, the way I played according to my tracking and consistent, close to flat betting.  I let my emotions and greed take over in shoe 3. This time I got lucky but cannot rely on luck.  More importantly, I have set a session target of $200 per session but I did not leave when it was achieved in shoe 2.  So I still have someways to go to be in full control of my emotions

Any helpful comments are welcome and thanks for reading


_--------_

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simon2018
31-May 2018 Thursday @ 9:24 PM (80 days ago)            #4
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31st May

Shoe #1

To get a change of scenery, went to the machines in the smoke free zone. Boy! These machines have better resolution and you can play baccarat, roulette and sic bo at the same terminal! Again put in $500 and since the baccarat shoe is ending, switch over to roulette. Quickly saw that the “medium” numbers came out 4 in a row. So put $25 each on 1-12 and $25 on 25-36, knn 13 came and ate my $50.  Try again, same bet, tick tick tock tock fell into 0 pocket.  Ok so even before start, lose $100.

Now shoe starts, observe observe and at hand 8, put $50 on banker, win.  Played a total of 18 hands and end up $250. Stop and go look around to wait for next new shoe

Shoe #2

Walked back to smoking section just in time when dealer burning cards.  By the 12th hand, it is clear that a lot more 1,2,4 have shown up which favours the banker. On cue, 4 banker wins but I was able to ride on only 3.  Then I told myself, one last sure bet and I will stop . Strange deck but the 4 card keeps coming out, and by a little over mid shoe, more that 25 of the possible 32 has been revealed. One bet of $100 on banker and player first draw a 4 and 6 ,banker a 4 and another 4(in my mind I thought at this rate, there might be any 4 left in deck). I stopped

Summary

So total profit for 2 shoes came to $500.  What I learnt from this round is this is really a mental game. Going in with a target and a method brings focus.  I’m still not sure if method works but I know for sure, it forces me to bet fewer hands and lowers the exposure to the house edge.

Thanks and any comments welcome


_--------_

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peacenjoy
01-Jun 2018 Friday @ 5:01 PM (79 days ago)            #5
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my input: be aware of螳螂捕蝉黄雀在后


_--------_

Good luck & cheerios!


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simon2018
01-Jun 2018 Friday @ 11:26 PM (79 days ago)            #6
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@peacejoy, thanks and you are right

1st June

Feeling invincible, went again today. Armed with my winnings of 1.2k and 700 more in my wallet, happily went to the smoking area and put in $500.  It was mid shoe but I told myself it is ok, just try luck, no need to track, and win two hands in a row.  Then kind of woke up, and told myself must stick to my system and waited painfully and patiently for new shoe

shoe #1

Again patiently, wait and tracked dutifully..... saw first chance, $100 on banker.  Lost.  Another 100, 200, 200 later all lost. I feel nervous and angry.  Put in another $500, bet $200 on player, which has a 10 and 7, banker has 2, then draw 6!  Really feel my heart rate go up, do or die, $300 on player. End up player K,K,A and banker has 4,7 and turned over a 9.  Ho say, I think “luck” changed. Fast forward, two hands, all is left is $100. Print out and cash out. Let’s try at table I think myself..

Table

Changed 1k at empty table then walk around, saw a table which just opened few 4 cards, put $300 on banker. Won.  Then sat down with another player, was up to 1.9k, then deck finished.  Stood up walked to another table, lost 5 in a row.  Then I realise my profit from last two days all gone and even lost 700 of my capital....

Summary

i cannot overcome the chase loss mentality and play nervous and not rational when I’m playing from chasing loss position.  Also, my method of tracking did not work as I thought, and in the case of today, it was worse than a coin toss... maybe “luck” is the only factor and skill and method cannot win consistently for baccarat?

Thanks for reading


_--------_

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tigrep
02-Jun 2018 Saturday @ 10:26 PM (78 days ago)            #7
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Like many here, gambling has always intrigued me and inspired by Bro Justin ,   I have decided to try and replicate his method of betting as outlined in his earlier thread (“I am really back liao”). The rationale is that by setting strict win and loss targets, risks can be reduced by accumulating small wins frequently.  

So, I finally bit the bullet and bought an annual levy. As you all know, all casino games in Singapore are negative expectation games, meaning house always have a built in advantage.

My game of choice will be baccarat for the simple reason of the lower house edge. My bank roll is 5K and to start, my plan is to bring 1k per session for a unit bet size of $50. My win target will be $200 and downside $1k, which statistically give me an approximate 80% chance of win, and 20% of losing1k. With odds like that, some of the bros and sis here will quickly call out that the EV (expected value) is negative because:

EV = 80%*(200) -20%*(1000) = -40.

so it means that in the long run, I will lose.

One popular way to “defeat” the negative EV is by using betting systems, like the infamous Martingale, Cancellation, paroli and 1-3-2-4.  But I am not a big believer of systems.

so, I’m left with the next option, which is using correct bet selection to overcome the edge. And this is where it gets “chim”.  Popular methods are card counting both absolute and running, card tracking by seeing which cards come out already to gauge whether player or banker is more advantageous. Another very popular method is trend spotting which I’m sure most baccarat players are familiar with. One more is to follow or chop dragon after x times.

I personally believe that card tracking should work better as this method makes an “independent outcome” game like baccarat, more “dependant” and this is the method that I would choose to experiment with to improve my bet selection.

As it s still early, please do not ask me about how to track cards. I would post regularly my results and if they are positive and robust, then of course can share.

Until next time, wish me luck

EV = whatever ,what maths can teach , is not useful in life, what is useful in life , maths cant teach, some guy with crazy hair said that

If there is a useful formula for gamblers , it should be EQ > IQ

Day 1 50 per bet 1k capital = 20 units
Day 3 last 5 hands 1.9k = 5 units
by the same rate of progression
Day 7 it will be 3k per hand
by end of 2nd week it will be 190k per hand
money is relative, even with more money , you were poorer on your 3rd visit than your 1st
low on capital , high on hopes, 3rd visit is recipe for ruin

Not a big believer of systems means a big believer of oneself
otherwise who will gamble? Cos you have to believe in something to lead you to
undertake risk taking
one need to have a extremely big ego and deep pockets to apply ' i only believe in myself' system
cos otherwise when the chips are down , that system just crumble


 


_--------_

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simon2018
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 12:09 AM (78 days ago)            #8
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quote originally posted by tigrep:
 

Like many here, gambling has always intrigued me and inspired by Bro Justin ,   I have decided to try and replicate his method of betting as outlined in his earlier thread (“I am really back liao”). The rationale is that by setting strict win and loss targets, risks can be reduced by accumulating small wins frequently.  

So, I finally bit the bullet and bought an annual levy. As you all know, all casino games in Singapore are negative expectation games, meaning house always have a built in advantage.

My game of choice will be baccarat for the simple reason of the lower house edge. My bank roll is 5K and to start, my plan is to bring 1k per session for a unit bet size of $50. My win target will be $200 and downside $1k, which statistically give me an approximate 80% chance of win, and 20% of losing1k. With odds like that, some of the bros and sis here will quickly call out that the EV (expected value) is negative because:

EV = 80%*(200) -20%*(1000) = -40.

so it means that in the long run, I will lose.

One popular way to “defeat” the negative EV is by using betting systems, like the infamous Martingale, Cancellation, paroli and 1-3-2-4.  But I am not a big believer of systems.

so, I’m left with the next option, which is using correct bet selection to overcome the edge. And this is where it gets “chim”.  Popular methods are card counting both absolute and running, card tracking by seeing which cards come out already to gauge whether player or banker is more advantageous. Another very popular method is trend spotting which I’m sure most baccarat players are familiar with. One more is to follow or chop dragon after x times.

I personally believe that card tracking should work better as this method makes an “independent outcome” game like baccarat, more “dependant” and this is the method that I would choose to experiment with to improve my bet selection.

As it s still early, please do not ask me about how to track cards. I would post regularly my results and if they are positive and robust, then of course can share.

Until next time, wish me luck

EV = whatever ,what maths can teach , is not useful in life, what is useful in life , maths cant teach, some guy with crazy hair said that

If there is a useful formula for gamblers , it should be EQ > IQ

Day 1 50 per bet 1k capital = 20 units
Day 3 last 5 hands 1.9k = 5 units
by the same rate of progression
Day 7 it will be 3k per hand
by end of 2nd week it will be 190k per hand
money is relative, even with more money , you were poorer on your 3rd visit than your 1st
low on capital , high on hopes, 3rd visit is recipe for ruin

Not a big believer of systems means a big believer of oneself
otherwise who will gamble? Cos you have to believe in something to lead you to
undertake risk taking
one need to have a extremely big ego and deep pockets to apply ' i only believe in myself' system
cos otherwise when the chips are down , that system just crumble


 


@tigrep, thanks for the insight. But to be clear, I don’t have that type of bankroll to escalate to but I get your point.

Thanks!

 


_--------_

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peacenjoy
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 1:20 AM (78 days ago)            #9
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quote originally posted by simon2018:

@peacejoy, thanks and you are right
1st June
Feeling invincible, went again today. Armed with my winnings of 1.2k and 700 more in my wallet, happily went to the smoking area and put in $500.  It was mid shoe but I told myself it is ok, just try luck, no need to track, and win two hands in a row.  Then kind of woke up, and told myself must stick to my system and waited painfully and patiently for new shoe
shoe #1
Again patiently, wait and tracked dutifully..... saw first chance, $100 on banker.  Lost.  Another 100, 200, 200 later all lost. I feel nervous and angry.  Put in another $500, bet $200 on player, which has a 10 and 7, banker has 2, then draw 6!  Really feel my heart rate go up, do or die, $300 on player. End up player K,K,A and banker has 4,7 and turned over a 9.  Ho say, I think “luck” changed. Fast forward, two hands, all is left is $100. Print out and cash out. Let’s try at table I think myself..
Table
Changed 1k at empty table then walk around, saw a table which just opened few 4 cards, put $300 on banker. Won.  Then sat down with another player, was up to 1.9k, then deck finished.  Stood up walked to another table, lost 5 in a row.  Then I realise my profit from last two days all gone and even lost 700 of my capital....
Summary
i cannot overcome the chase loss mentality and play nervous and not rational when I’m playing from chasing loss position.  Also, my method of tracking did not work as I thought, and in the case of today, it was worse than a coin toss... maybe “luck” is the only factor and skill and method cannot win consistently for baccarat?
Thanks for reading



the cards are shuffle systematically
what works today may not work in the future
the thrill, sensitivity to money ought to stay in focus
luck is preparation and patience meet opportunity
but as i said,螳螂捕蝉黄雀在后。
gamblers profiles are tracked and analysed...the house then shuffle the cards against gamblers
if u always win, the supervisor will count the chips to alert the cctv...etc etc
next neck cards are probably against your strategy then
so, i normally play only middle cards once i go in


_--------_

Good luck & cheerios!


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peacenjoy
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 1:22 AM (78 days ago)            #10
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quote originally posted by simon2018:

@peacejoy, thanks and you are right
1st June
Feeling invincible, went again today. Armed with my winnings of 1.2k and 700 more in my wallet, happily went to the smoking area and put in $500.  It was mid shoe but I told myself it is ok, just try luck, no need to track, and win two hands in a row.  Then kind of woke up, and told myself must stick to my system and waited painfully and patiently for new shoe
shoe #1
Again patiently, wait and tracked dutifully..... saw first chance, $100 on banker.  Lost.  Another 100, 200, 200 later all lost. I feel nervous and angry.  Put in another $500, bet $200 on player, which has a 10 and 7, banker has 2, then draw 6!  Really feel my heart rate go up, do or die, $300 on player. End up player K,K,A and banker has 4,7 and turned over a 9.  Ho say, I think “luck” changed. Fast forward, two hands, all is left is $100. Print out and cash out. Let’s try at table I think myself..
Table
Changed 1k at empty table then walk around, saw a table which just opened few 4 cards, put $300 on banker. Won.  Then sat down with another player, was up to 1.9k, then deck finished.  Stood up walked to another table, lost 5 in a row.  Then I realise my profit from last two days all gone and even lost 700 of my capital....
Summary
i cannot overcome the chase loss mentality and play nervous and not rational when I’m playing from chasing loss position.  Also, my method of tracking did not work as I thought, and in the case of today, it was worse than a coin toss... maybe “luck” is the only factor and skill and method cannot win consistently for baccarat?
Thanks for reading




emotional is human being weakness since ancient
no one can prevent total chase lose period
we can only minimize damage via not bringing atm and credit cards and etc
i once brought certain cash to genting and lost, then went down to take and fight again
human is in general tends to b emotional


_--------_

Good luck & cheerios!


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peacenjoy
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 1:25 AM (78 days ago)            #11
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whatever gamblers do, the house will have method to counter
we gamblers think we can be smarter
but reality is not lo


_--------_

Good luck & cheerios!


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peacenjoy
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 1:27 AM (78 days ago)            #12
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play within limit if cannot quit totally
no one can win always
bad timing will come and gambler react poorly


_--------_

Good luck & cheerios!


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peacenjoy
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 9:36 AM (77 days ago)            #13
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played from ~2am till now:
+5600hkd😁
changed chips from total 3k to total 6k to total 10k.
luckily 名不该绝😁


_--------_

Good luck & cheerios!


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peacenjoy
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 9:37 AM (77 days ago)            #14
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midnight was against my structure
need to follow crowd put much already first hand, the longer the riskier...
so there is no fixed formula to win as the house always reacts to gamblers all sorts of strategy😁


_--------_

Good luck & cheerios!


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peacenjoy
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 4:48 PM (77 days ago)            #15
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round2:+7000hkd😁
met 6rows second liners never failed u😁
player showed u 4rows/3rows/2rows
banker showed u 5/4/(i told myself this row may go down long)
i put second liner 3k, third game 2k, 4th game 2k, 5th game 1k, 6th game 2k
i went with the win
didnt want to see game7 as bacarrat is千变万化
what works today serves as a reference for future only


_--------_

Good luck & cheerios!


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peacenjoy
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 4:57 PM (77 days ago)            #16
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keep mobility intact (means need enough rest to b able to walk through tables)
like nba/football, "bad luck" streak happens because the house already know gamblers profile (betting habit, odds movement, etc)
it is important to 离场 or switch to other tables
round 2 i lost 3k first (in 4 or 5 games)
then i switched tables as the tables are against my strategy


_--------_

Good luck & cheerios!


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simon2018
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 6:46 PM (77 days ago)            #17
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quote originally posted by peacenjoy:
round2:+7000hkd😁
met 6rows second liners never failed u😁
player showed u 4rows/3rows/2rows
banker showed u 5/4/(i told myself this row may go down long)
i put second liner 3k, third game 2k, 4th game 2k, 5th game 1k, 6th game 2k
i went with the win
didnt want to see game7 as bacarrat is千变万化
what works today serves as a reference for future only



Bro peacejoy, sounds like you are having fun and doing well in Macau!  What you described earlier as the shoe changes every time and no one system works all the time is accurate.  

I read that you also bet in nba and I do as well.  Tomorrow GSW vs Cleveland, line open and stayed at 12.5, o/u 215.5.  I think GSW will cover as :

1. James must be tired after playing >40 mins in more than 6 postseason games
2.  Cleveland must have team morale problems after the JR Smith mistake last game

what u think.

 


_--------_

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simon2018
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 6:51 PM (77 days ago)            #18
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quote originally posted by peacenjoy:
played from ~2am till now:
+5600hkd😁
changed chips from total 3k to total 6k to total 10k.
luckily 名不该绝😁


Respect, don’t know how can last so Long in casino.

Just one week into project, spending max 2 hours a day I tired already. The emotional of wins and loss is like a roller coaster.

Will be a on biz trip this week so will only go when I come back next week.

Good luck to all !


 


_--------_

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warrent buffet
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 10:16 PM (77 days ago)            #19
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Simon,

Just wish to share with you that the best advise is not gamble in casino.

You can only treat casino as a form of entertainment.

You needs to pay to get entertained.


Sharing:
Have you ever wonder why casino will ask you to put your chip strictly into the box and biggest chip must be placed at the bottom? go and digest it. Do u think casino is fair?

Think of Baccarat game as how casino control the jackpot machine.

Hope you know what i mean.


_--------_
1.THERE IS NO 100% TIP OR BET. IT IS NOT ABOUT WINING A GAME BUT WIN IN THE LONG RUN.
2.IF YOU HAVE $5000, DONT BET MORE THAN $500.
3.DONT KNOW WHAT TO BET. FOLLOW THE TOP FORM TIPSTER. YOU WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE A COMEBACK.
4.LASTLY DONT NEED TO JUMP IF YOU LOSE EVERYTHING. YOU CAN MAKE A COMEBACK. EVERYONE LOSE HOPE ON YOU. YOU CANNOT LOSE HOPE ON YOURSELF.

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peacenjoy
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 10:16 PM (77 days ago)            #20
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quote originally posted by simon2018:

Bro peacejoy, sounds like you are having fun and doing well in Macau!  What you described earlier as the shoe changes every time and no one system works all the time is accurate.  
I read that you also bet in nba and I do as well.  Tomorrow GSW vs Cleveland, line open and stayed at 12.5, o/u 215.5.  I think GSW will cover as :
1. James must be tired after playing >40 mins in more than 6 postseason games
2.  Cleveland must have team morale problems after the JR Smith mistake last game
what u think.
 



nba is also script like ucl final
guess correct and u win money
lately i leaked money from football/nba, more wins from casino
i won on g1 makan +12.5
if i were to play, i eat again (use bacarrat strategy to play😁)


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peacenjoy
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 10:21 PM (77 days ago)            #21
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i whacked rockets, thinking they will overcome gsw
y such feeling? the house made gamblers think so (time for a change, not always gsw)
like bacarrat, one can fall for trap if sit down play😁


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peacenjoy
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 10:27 PM (77 days ago)            #22
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quote originally posted by simon2018:

Respect, don’t know how can last so Long in casino.
Just one week into project, spending max 2 hours a day I tired already. The emotional of wins and loss is like a roller coaster.
Will be a on biz trip this week so will only go when I come back next week.
Good luck to all !
 


quit is the best
otherwise play within limit
human cannot beat gambling system. full stop.


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simon2018
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 10:27 PM (77 days ago)            #23
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quote originally posted by warrent buffet:
Simon,

Just wish to share with you that the best advise is not gamble in casino.

You can only treat casino as a form of entertainment.

You needs to pay to get entertained.


Sharing:
Have you ever wonder why casino will ask you to put your chip strictly into the box and biggest chip must be placed at the bottom? go and digest it. Do u think casino is fair?

Think of Baccarat game as how casino control the jackpot machine.

Hope you know what i mean.


Words of wisdom. Also your name very 值钱,cost millions to have private lunch with you.

I do not know reason why the box and biggest chip in bottom, does it have something to do with the box is like a coffin?


 


_--------_

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warrent buffet
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 10:29 PM (77 days ago)            #24
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I got the answer from u tube from a ex dealer.

I stop going to casino after that.


_--------_
1.THERE IS NO 100% TIP OR BET. IT IS NOT ABOUT WINING A GAME BUT WIN IN THE LONG RUN.
2.IF YOU HAVE $5000, DONT BET MORE THAN $500.
3.DONT KNOW WHAT TO BET. FOLLOW THE TOP FORM TIPSTER. YOU WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE A COMEBACK.
4.LASTLY DONT NEED TO JUMP IF YOU LOSE EVERYTHING. YOU CAN MAKE A COMEBACK. EVERYONE LOSE HOPE ON YOU. YOU CANNOT LOSE HOPE ON YOURSELF.

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peacenjoy
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 10:32 PM (77 days ago)            #25
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of course casino will do alot of small actions to try to disturb gamblers
of course they need to have slight advantage as they dont force gamblers to place bets every game
avoid potential traps, bring only what one is prepared to lose, be patience, go/quit when u r ahead like what rainbath mentioned, afterall human being is greedy in nature in general


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simon2018
03-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 10:38 PM (77 days ago)            #26
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quote originally posted by warrent buffet:
I got the answer from u tube from a ex dealer.

I stop going to casino after that.



So, it is because of the shape of the box like a coffin? Today 长见识, thank you
 


_--------_

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peacenjoy
04-Jun 2018 Monday @ 12:13 PM (76 days ago)            #27
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round1:+5600hkd
round2:+7000hkd
round3:-6000hkd
round4:+3000hkd


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peacenjoy
04-Jun 2018 Monday @ 8:55 PM (76 days ago)            #28
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quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

round1:+5600hkd
round2:+7000hkd
round3:-6000hkd
round4:+3000hkd


round5:+5500 (my structure, could win >10k hkd, but last fight before my flight, so was adopting cautious approach)😁


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peacenjoy
04-Jun 2018 Monday @ 8:56 PM (76 days ago)            #29
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round4 changed up to 17k as capitals
nearly up lorry😁


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peacenjoy
04-Jun 2018 Monday @ 9:00 PM (76 days ago)            #30
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round 4 changed to ponte16 after losing 6k at oceanus
first table achieved +5300 hkd, but greed devil asked me to win more, so ended up losing later on and what i put was wrong as my profile was tracked and against to
human is stubborn, knew could b opposite self structure but still wanted to try own structure
luckily persevered till rainbow appeared😁

round5: winwinwin more than lose, achieve max 6k, but last game lost 500 and lesson learnt during round4, also times up to board flight...


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TITI@1018
04-Jun 2018 Monday @ 11:04 PM (76 days ago)            #31
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gl
 


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justin11sg
05-Jun 2018 Tuesday @ 2:49 AM (76 days ago)            #32
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Hmm if i remember my thread. Oh boy i tell u is kind of painful to travel back and forth.

In 2016 i have the time , that was before sssspools online. Win min $30 to max $500 must go off daily.. to calculate the stop loss is 20% of your bankroll. I have my excel on my mobile. So i dun bet on table cards 1.

It cannot earned a fortune but good enough for investment. Dun seek thrill just treat it as a biz.

Nowadays i daily levy also sick liao. Must think so much in 24 hrs - better dun go often liao. Bad for health. The min win i target and calculate must be $30 x 12 = $460. Minus levy and cab fare bo hua. Take back $310 nia. But now soccer can legally live bet online shiok more free time at night.

I was inspired by winningexperts. U go refer to his thread.  The rule is dun showhand in casino. U must learn how to react when the house edge is strong. U must walk away if u lose your day objectives. U have 350 days.. so just relax abit. 

This message was edited by justin11sg on 05-Jun-2018 @ 3:01 AM


_--------_

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Let the fightback begins. fcon 1 damage control activated


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peacenjoy
05-Jun 2018 Tuesday @ 3:19 AM (76 days ago)            #33
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quote originally posted by justin11sg:

Hmm if i remember my thread. Oh boy i tell u is kind of painful to travel back and forth.
In 2016 i have the time , that was before sssspools online. Win min $30 to max $500 must go off daily.. to calculate the stop loss is 20% of your bankroll. I have my excel on my mobile. So i dun bet on table cards 1.
It cannot earned a fortune but good enough for investment. Dun seek thrill just treat it as a biz.
Nowadays i daily levy also sick liao. Must think so much in 24 hrs - better dun go often liao. Bad for health. The min win i target and calculate must be $30 x 12 = $460. Minus levy and cab fare bo hua. Take back $310 nia. But now soccer can legally live bet online shiok more free time at night.
I was inspired by winningexperts. U go refer to his thread.  The rule is dun showhand in casino. U must learn how to react when the house edge is strong. U must walk away if u lose your day objectives. U have 350 days.. so just relax abit. 
This message was edited by justin11sg on 05-Jun-2018 @ 3:01 AM




for sure, reaction to bad patch is never easy. else casino closes shop liao
i walk through tables as not all tables are my tables
especially once u go in, they may provide table that shows next game structure against your profile
similar to football, our profiles are tracked and against us,
winning expert is wise to call it off, else the end result is the same lile many.
ever wonder everyone must have a time when what u bet is lost? and it lasted several games
strange right?😁
if everyone has enough capitals to 1/2/4/8/16/32/64/128 using different accounts from family members, cannot lose?😁
螳螂捕蝉黄雀在后
gamblers have all sorts of strategy, the house just react against for the future😁


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peacenjoy
05-Jun 2018 Tuesday @ 3:21 AM (76 days ago)            #34
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there must come a time to call it off😊


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peacenjoy
05-Jun 2018 Tuesday @ 3:24 AM (76 days ago)            #35
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quit when u r ahead, it feels good😍
stay calm, the thrill can lower sensitivity to money management/reaction to bad patch😁


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simon2018
09-Jun 2018 Saturday @ 6:28 PM (71 days ago)            #36
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quote originally posted by justin11sg:
Hmm if i remember my thread. Oh boy i tell u is kind of painful to travel back and forth.

In 2016 i have the time , that was before sssspools online. Win min $30 to max $500 must go off daily.. to calculate the stop loss is 20% of your bankroll. I have my excel on my mobile. So i dun bet on table cards 1.

It cannot earned a fortune but good enough for investment. Dun seek thrill just treat it as a biz.

Nowadays i daily levy also sick liao. Must think so much in 24 hrs - better dun go often liao. Bad for health. The min win i target and calculate must be $30 x 12 = $460. Minus levy and cab fare bo hua. Take back $310 nia. But now soccer can legally live bet online shiok more free time at night.

I was inspired by winningexperts. U go refer to his thread.  The rule is dun showhand in casino. U must learn how to react when the house edge is strong. U must walk away if u lose your day objectives. U have 350 days.. so just relax abit.  This message was edited by justin11sg on 05-Jun-2018 @ 3:01 AM


Thanks Justin.  

And yes, should adopt a 平常心 with this approach and use time to advantage.

Back from trip, so will try later.



 


_--------_

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simon2018
10-Jun 2018 Sunday @ 12:00 AM (71 days ago)            #37
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quote originally posted by simon2018:
Thanks Justin.  

And yes, should adopt a 平常心 with this approach and use time to advantage.

Back from trip, so will try later.


 



Just came back. I set a clear target of $200-300 session, again with $1k bankroll.  No drama this evening. Target achieved in 1.5 shoe.  

Lesson on learnt was bet size must be reasonable so it does not have adverse impact when lose.  Only when not losing, then when wind come, ride the streak for win.  Thanks all sifus for advice
 


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wembly
13-Jun 2018 Wednesday @ 4:57 AM (68 days ago)            #38
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quote originally posted by simon2018:
 

  Like many here, gambling has always intrigued me and inspired by Bro Justin ,   I have decided to try and replicate his method of betting as outlined in his earlier thread (“I am really back liao”). The rationale is that by setting strict win and loss targets, risks can be reduced by accumulating small wins frequently.  

So, I finally bit the bullet and bought an annual levy. As you all know, all casino games in Singapore are negative expectation games, meaning house always have a built in advantage.

My game of choice will be baccarat for the simple reason of the lower house edge. My bank roll is 5K and to start, my plan is to bring 1k per session for a unit bet size of $50. My win target will be $200 and downside $1k, which statistically give me an approximate 80% chance of win, and 20% of losing1k. With odds like that, some of the bros and sis here will quickly call out that the EV (expected value) is negative because:

EV = 80%*(200) -20%*(1000) = -40.

so it means that in the long run, I will lose.

One popular way to “defeat” the negative EV is by using betting systems, like the infamous Martingale, Cancellation, paroli and 1-3-2-4.  But I am not a big believer of systems.

so, I’m left with the next option, which is using correct bet selection to overcome the edge. And this is where it gets “chim”.  Popular methods are card counting both absolute and running, card tracking by seeing which cards come out already to gauge whether player or banker is more advantageous. Another very popular method is trend spotting which I’m sure most baccarat players are familiar with. One more is to follow or chop dragon after x times.

I personally believe that card tracking should work better as this method makes an “independent outcome” game like baccarat, more “dependant” and this is the method that I would choose to experiment with to improve my bet selection.

As it s still early, please do not ask me about how to track cards. I would post regularly my results and if they are positive and robust, then of course can share.

Until next time, wish me luck



Best of luck 👍
 


_--------_

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HomeWork
28-Jun 2018 Thursday @ 2:01 AM (53 days ago)            #39
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quote originally posted by simon2018:
 

  Like many here, gambling has always intrigued me and inspired by Bro Justin ,   I have decided to try and replicate his method of betting as outlined in his earlier thread (“I am really back liao”). The rationale is that by setting strict win and loss targets, risks can be reduced by accumulating small wins frequently.   So, I finally bit the bullet and bought an annual levy. As you all know, all casino games in Singapore are negative expectation games, meaning house always have a built in advantage. My game of choice will be baccarat for the simple reason of the lower house edge. My bank roll is 5K and to start, my plan is to bring 1k per session for a unit bet size of $50. My win target will be $200 and downside $1k, which statistically give me an approximate 80% chance of win, and 20% of losing1k. With odds like that, some of the bros and sis here will quickly call out that the EV (expected value) is negative because: EV = 80%*(200) -20%*(1000) = -40. so it means that in the long run, I will lose. One popular way to “defeat” the negative EV is by using betting systems, like the infamous Martingale, Cancellation, paroli and 1-3-2-4.  But I am not a big believer of systems. so, I’m left with the next option, which is using correct bet selection to overcome the edge. And this is where it gets “chim”.  Popular methods are card counting both absolute and running, card tracking by seeing which cards come out already to gauge whether player or banker is more advantageous. Another very popular method is trend spotting which I’m sure most baccarat players are familiar with. One more is to follow or chop dragon after x times. I personally believe that card tracking should work better as this method makes an “independent outcome” game like baccarat, more “dependant” and this is the method that I would choose to experiment with to improve my bet selection. As it s still early, please do not ask me about how to track cards. I would post regularly my results and if they are positive and robust, then of course can share. Until next time, wish me luck





quote originally posted by simon2018:

30th May Went and sat down in front of those machines, all excited and raring to go but it was mid-shoe....  Boy! It was really a test of control just sitting and not putting a bet. Finally shoe ended, and I dutifully put in my 5x$100 bills. Shoe #1  1st bet ho say! Up $50, good start. Forgot how many hands I played but in the range of 20-25, using mostly $50 bets but few hands $25 and 2 or 3 hands of $100.  At end of shoe, up $250 Shoe #2 Repeat the process and similar hands and bet size, end of shoe, up another $122.5 Show #3 Can feel a bit tired and told myself this is last shoe. Will leave at once my profit drop back to $200 or I hit $700 in total profit.  So repeat process and won first two,three hands.  So now, my cumulative bal is about $1050.  May be tired or adrenaline or I don’t know, I told myself to whack $150 to make it an even $1200 then go. Lost! KNN! Then I told myself, whack one more time, if lose, just keep $200 profit then go.  Fast forward two hands, I printed out a ticket for $1200. Summary I am happy with shoe 1 and 2, the way I played according to my tracking and consistent, close to flat betting.  I let my emotions and greed take over in shoe 3. This time I got lucky but cannot rely on luck.  More importantly, I have set a session target of $200 per session but I did not leave when it was achieved in shoe 2.  So I still have someways to go to be in full control of my emotions Any helpful comments are welcome and thanks for reading





quote originally posted by simon2018:

31st May Shoe #1 To get a change of scenery, went to the machines in the smoke free zone. Boy! These machines have better resolution and you can play baccarat, roulette and sic bo at the same terminal! Again put in $500 and since the baccarat shoe is ending, switch over to roulette. Quickly saw that the “medium” numbers came out 4 in a row. So put $25 each on 1-12 and $25 on 25-36, knn 13 came and ate my $50.  Try again, same bet, tick tick tock tock fell into 0 pocket.  Ok so even before start, lose $100. Now shoe starts, observe observe and at hand 8, put $50 on banker, win.  Played a total of 18 hands and end up $250. Stop and go look around to wait for next new shoe Shoe #2 Walked back to smoking section just in time when dealer burning cards.  By the 12th hand, it is clear that a lot more 1,2,4 have shown up which favours the banker. On cue, 4 banker wins but I was able to ride on only 3.  Then I told myself, one last sure bet and I will stop . Strange deck but the 4 card keeps coming out, and by a little over mid shoe, more that 25 of the possible 32 has been revealed. One bet of $100 on banker and player first draw a 4 and 6 ,banker a 4 and another 4(in my mind I thought at this rate, there might be any 4 left in deck). I stopped Summary So total profit for 2 shoes came to $500.  What I learnt from this round is this is really a mental game. Going in with a target and a method brings focus.  I’m still not sure if method works but I know for sure, it forces me to bet fewer hands and lowers the exposure to the house edge. Thanks and any comments welcome





quote originally posted by simon2018:

@peacejoy, thanks and you are right 1st June Feeling invincible, went again today. Armed with my winnings of 1.2k and 700 more in my wallet, happily went to the smoking area and put in $500.  It was mid shoe but I told myself it is ok, just try luck, no need to track, and win two hands in a row.  Then kind of woke up, and told myself must stick to my system and waited painfully and patiently for new shoe shoe #1 Again patiently, wait and tracked dutifully..... saw first chance, $100 on banker.  Lost.  Another 100, 200, 200 later all lost. I feel nervous and angry.  Put in another $500, bet $200 on player, which has a 10 and 7, banker has 2, then draw 6!  Really feel my heart rate go up, do or die, $300 on player. End up player K,K,A and banker has 4,7 and turned over a 9.  Ho say, I think “luck” changed. Fast forward, two hands, all is left is $100. Print out and cash out. Let’s try at table I think myself.. Table Changed 1k at empty table then walk around, saw a table which just opened few 4 cards, put $300 on banker. Won.  Then sat down with another player, was up to 1.9k, then deck finished.  Stood up walked to another table, lost 5 in a row.  Then I realise my profit from last two days all gone and even lost 700 of my capital.... Summary i cannot overcome the chase loss mentality and play nervous and not rational when I’m playing from chasing loss position.  Also, my method of tracking did not work as I thought, and in the case of today, it was worse than a coin toss... maybe “luck” is the only factor and skill and method cannot win consistently for baccarat? Thanks for reading





quote originally posted by tigrep:

 

Like many here, gambling has always intrigued me and inspired by Bro Justin ,   I have decided to try and replicate his method of betting as outlined in his earlier thread (“I am really back liao”). The rationale is that by setting strict win and loss targets, risks can be reduced by accumulating small wins frequently.  

So, I finally bit the bullet and bought an annual levy. As you all know, all casino games in Singapore are negative expectation games, meaning house always have a built in advantage.

My game of choice will be baccarat for the simple reason of the lower house edge. My bank roll is 5K and to start, my plan is to bring 1k per session for a unit bet size of $50. My win target will be $200 and downside $1k, which statistically give me an approximate 80% chance of win, and 20% of losing1k. With odds like that, some of the bros and sis here will quickly call out that the EV (expected value) is negative because:

EV = 80%*(200) -20%*(1000) = -40.

so it means that in the long run, I will lose.

One popular way to “defeat” the negative EV is by using betting systems, like the infamous Martingale, Cancellation, paroli and 1-3-2-4.  But I am not a big believer of systems.

so, I’m left with the next option, which is using correct bet selection to overcome the edge. And this is where it gets “chim”.  Popular methods are card counting both absolute and running, card tracking by seeing which cards come out already to gauge whether player or banker is more advantageous. Another very popular method is trend spotting which I’m sure most baccarat players are familiar with. One more is to follow or chop dragon after x times.

I personally believe that card tracking should work better as this method makes an “independent outcome” game like baccarat, more “dependant” and this is the method that I would choose to experiment with to improve my bet selection.

As it s still early, please do not ask me about how to track cards. I would post regularly my results and if they are positive and robust, then of course can share.

Until next time, wish me luck EV = whatever ,what maths can teach , is not useful in life, what is useful in life , maths cant teach, some guy with crazy hair said that If there is a useful formula for gamblers , it should be EQ > IQ Day 1 50 per bet 1k capital = 20 units Day 3 last 5 hands 1.9k = 5 units by the same rate of progression Day 7 it will be 3k per hand by end of 2nd week it will be 190k per hand money is relative, even with more money , you were poorer on your 3rd visit than your 1st low on capital , high on hopes, 3rd visit is recipe for ruin Not a big believer of systems means a big believer of oneself otherwise who will gamble? Cos you have to believe in something to lead you to undertake risk taking one need to have a extremely big ego and deep pockets to apply ' i only believe in myself' system cos otherwise when the chips are down , that system just crumble
 





quote originally posted by simon2018:

@tigrep, thanks for the insight. But to be clear, I don’t have that type of bankroll to escalate to but I get your point. Thanks!  





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

the cards are shuffle systematically what works today may not work in the future the thrill, sensitivity to money ought to stay in focus luck is preparation and patience meet opportunity but as i said,螳螂捕蝉黄雀在后。 gamblers profiles are tracked and analysed...the house then shuffle the cards against gamblers if u always win, the supervisor will count the chips to alert the cctv...etc etc next neck cards are probably against your strategy then so, i normally play only middle cards once i go in





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

emotional is human being weakness since ancient no one can prevent total chase lose period we can only minimize damage via not bringing atm and credit cards and etc i once brought certain cash to genting and lost, then went down to take and fight again human is in general tends to b emotional





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

whatever gamblers do, the house will have method to counter we gamblers think we can be smarter but reality is not lo





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

play within limit if cannot quit totally no one can win always bad timing will come and gambler react poorly





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

played from ~2am till now: +5600hkd😁 changed chips from total 3k to total 6k to total 10k. luckily 名不该绝😁





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

midnight was against my structure need to follow crowd put much already first hand, the longer the riskier... so there is no fixed formula to win as the house always reacts to gamblers all sorts of strategy😁





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

round2:+7000hkd😁 met 6rows second liners never failed u😁 player showed u 4rows/3rows/2rows banker showed u 5/4/(i told myself this row may go down long) i put second liner 3k, third game 2k, 4th game 2k, 5th game 1k, 6th game 2k i went with the win didnt want to see game7 as bacarrat is千变万化 what works today serves as a reference for future only





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

keep mobility intact (means need enough rest to b able to walk through tables) like nba/football, "bad luck" streak happens because the house already know gamblers profile (betting habit, odds movement, etc) it is important to 离场 or switch to other tables round 2 i lost 3k first (in 4 or 5 games) then i switched tables as the tables are against my strategy





quote originally posted by simon2018:

Respect, don’t know how can last so Long in casino. Just one week into project, spending max 2 hours a day I tired already. The emotional of wins and loss is like a roller coaster. Will be a on biz trip this week so will only go when I come back next week. Good luck to all !  





quote originally posted by warrent buffet:

Simon, Just wish to share with you that the best advise is not gamble in casino. You can only treat casino as a form of entertainment. You needs to pay to get entertained. Sharing: Have you ever wonder why casino will ask you to put your chip strictly into the box and biggest chip must be placed at the bottom? go and digest it. Do u think casino is fair? Think of Baccarat game as how casino control the jackpot machine. Hope you know what i mean.





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

quit is the best otherwise play within limit human cannot beat gambling system. full stop.





quote originally posted by simon2018:

Words of wisdom. Also your name very 值钱,cost millions to have private lunch with you. I do not know reason why the box and biggest chip in bottom, does it have something to do with the box is like a coffin?  





quote originally posted by warrent buffet:

I got the answer from u tube from a ex dealer. I stop going to casino after that.





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

of course casino will do alot of small actions to try to disturb gamblers of course they need to have slight advantage as they dont force gamblers to place bets every game avoid potential traps, bring only what one is prepared to lose, be patience, go/quit when u r ahead like what rainbath mentioned, afterall human being is greedy in nature in general





quote originally posted by simon2018:

So, it is because of the shape of the box like a coffin? Today 长见识, thank you  





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

round1:+5600hkd round2:+7000hkd round3:-6000hkd round4:+3000hkd





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

round5:+5500 (my structure, could win >10k hkd, but last fight before my flight, so was adopting cautious approach)😁





quote originally posted by justin11sg:

Hmm if i remember my thread. Oh boy i tell u is kind of painful to travel back and forth. In 2016 i have the time , that was before sssspools online. Win min $30 to max $500 must go off daily.. to calculate the stop loss is 20% of your bankroll. I have my excel on my mobile. So i dun bet on table cards 1. It cannot earned a fortune but good enough for investment. Dun seek thrill just treat it as a biz. Nowadays i daily levy also sick liao. Must think so much in 24 hrs - better dun go often liao. Bad for health. The min win i target and calculate must be $30 x 12 = $460. Minus levy and cab fare bo hua. Take back $310 nia. But now soccer can legally live bet online shiok more free time at night. I was inspired by winningexperts. U go refer to his thread.  The rule is dun showhand in casino. U must learn how to react when the house edge is strong. U must walk away if u lose your day objectives. U have 350 days.. so just relax abit.  This message was edited by justin11sg on 05-Jun-2018 @ 3:01 AM





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

for sure, reaction to bad patch is never easy. else casino closes shop liao i walk through tables as not all tables are my tables especially once u go in, they may provide table that shows next game structure against your profile similar to football, our profiles are tracked and against us, winning expert is wise to call it off, else the end result is the same lile many. ever wonder everyone must have a time when what u bet is lost? and it lasted several games strange right?😁 if everyone has enough capitals to 1/2/4/8/16/32/64/128 using different accounts from family members, cannot lose?😁 螳螂捕蝉黄雀在后 gamblers have all sorts of strategy, the house just react against for the future😁





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

there must come a time to call it off😊





quote originally posted by peacenjoy:

quit when u r ahead, it feels good😍 stay calm, the thrill can lower sensitivity to money management/reaction to bad patch😁





quote originally posted by simon2018:

Thanks Justin.   And yes, should adopt a 平常心 with this approach and use time to advantage. Back from trip, so will try later.  





quote originally posted by simon2018:

Just came back. I set a clear target of $200-300 session, again with $1k bankroll.  No drama this evening. Target achieved in 1.5 shoe.  

Lesson on learnt was bet size must be reasonable so it does not have adverse impact when lose.  Only when not losing, then when wind come, ride the streak for win.  Thanks all sifus for advice



learned alot, bookmarked for reminder again.
ty seniors
 


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joombo
09-Jul 2018 Monday @ 5:54 PM (41 days ago)            #40
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sounds interesting. Good luck! 

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