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Posted By Topic: SNIPER BET for those who practice ONE BET IS ENUFF       - Views: 353
Fahrenheit 		02-Jul 2017 Sunday 8:58 PM (2487 days ago)               #1
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  		Different bettors have different betting styles, and there is a group in particular i.e. Astr@boi who famously subscribe to the "ONE BET IS ENUFF" philosophy.

The Tipster Competition could consider catering to this class of bettors, whom I call the "SNIPER BETTORS" to click a button to register themselves before the start of a competition season, and allow them to bet 1 "SNIPER BETS" per day that is worth AB$300K. The catch is that, once they declare themselves as SNIPER BETTORS for a  particular season, they will NOT BE ALLOWED TO PLACE THUNDER BETS anymore.




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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nil 		03-Jul 2017 Monday 10:19 AM (2487 days ago)            #2
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  		support. its a good idea.
but stake of AB$300k is a bit too much.
3 strikes already nearly double the bank of AB$1m.
.
i suggest the sniper must make minimum 100 thunder bets per season
and top sniper award goes to top strike rate and top yield



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Fahrenheit 		03-Jul 2017 Monday 10:39 AM (2487 days ago)            #3
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  		quote originally posted by nil:
support. its a good idea.
but stake of AB$300k is a bit too much.
3 strikes already nearly double the bank of AB$1m.
.
i suggest the sniper must make minimum 100 thunder bets per season
and top sniper award goes to top strike rate and top yield


$300K is the equivalent of 3 thunder bets, bro
A concentrated version of 3 X 100k thunder bets...
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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Fahrenheit 		03-Jul 2017 Monday 10:44 AM (2487 days ago)            #4
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quote originally posted by nil:

support. its a good idea.
but stake of AB$300k is a bit too much.
3 strikes already nearly double the bank of AB$1m.
.
i suggest the sniper must make minimum 100 thunder bets per season
and top sniper award goes to top strike rate and top yield


As in, sniper bettors will not be entitled to any thunder bet. They are to place a single sniper bet or nothing at all on a competition day.

This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 03-Jul-2017 @ 10:45 AM




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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Juan_Mata 		03-Jul 2017 Monday 12:56 PM (2487 days ago)            #5
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  		Support

But would prefer 1 sniper plus 3 normal thunder bets which add up to 600k total bets stake 
Lost all 3 thunder bets but you won't get to lose if you win one sniper bet, that could serve the purpose of ' 1 match is enuff'' theory :)




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Fahrenheit 		03-Jul 2017 Monday 1:01 PM (2487 days ago)            #6
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  		quote originally posted by Juan_Mata:
Support

But would prefer 1 sniper plus 3 normal thunder bets which add up to 600k total bets stake 
Lost all 3 thunder bets but you won't get to lose if you win one sniper bet, that could serve the purpose of ' 1 match is enuff'' theory :)

But if thunder bets are allowed as a form of insurance against the loss of a sniper bet, that would defeat the purpose of having this category as a distinction from other bettors.
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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wembly 		03-Jul 2017 Monday 4:57 PM (2486 days ago)            #7
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  		I support the idea but would self-exclude myself from this category. Don't have the required discipline to place one bet a day.



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KoChun 		04-Jul 2017 Tuesday 10:16 PM (2485 days ago)            #8
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  		Like that @stroboi win liao lor.

I quite like the idea actually.



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wembly 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 1:44 PM (2485 days ago)            #9
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
But if thunder bets are allowed as a form of insurance against the loss of a sniper bet, that would defeat the purpose of having this category as a distinction from other bettors.



I totally agree with Fahrenheit. The main challenge here is to be able to select your surest pick from the lot.



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JOGK 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 2:01 PM (2485 days ago)            #10
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  		Why not just each got a $1,000,000
Just like in real world
You can stake how much you want
But once you clear your account
Means you are out of the competition
No such things as minus account
I think this will be fair and square to all
Just my opinion




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Fahrenheit 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 2:13 PM (2485 days ago)            #11
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:
Why not just each got a $1,000,000
Just like in real world
You can stake how much you want
But once you clear your account
Means you are out of the competition
No such things as minus account
I think this will be fair and square to all
Just my opinion
 


This will encourage punters to adopt the double-down strategy of betting (7K>14K>28K>56K>112K>224K>448K>896K)

Barring unlucky souls who lose 8 times in a row, most punters with an initial capital of $1million will do fairly well. Risk-loving souls who start with, say 40K, and are lucky enough not to lose 5 bets in a row (50>100>200>400>800) will easily make it to top 100. 

What I am trying to say is that, once punters find it attractive to use the double-down strategy, this becomes a game of luck instead of skill. 

This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 05-Jul-2017 @ 2:16 PM




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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JOGK 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 2:35 PM (2485 days ago)            #12
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
This will encourage punters to adopt the double-down strategy of betting (7K>14K>28K>56K>112K>224K>448K>896K)
Barring unlucky souls who lose 8 times in a row, most punters with an initial capital of $1million will do fairly well. Risk-loving souls who start with, say 40K, and are lucky enough not to lose 5 bets in a row (50>100>200>400>800) will easily make it to top 100. 
What I am trying to say is that, once punters find it attractive to use the double-down strategy, this becomes a game of luck instead of skill. 
This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 05-Jul-2017 @ 2:16 PM

Dont forget that you do it
Others too can do it
If like you said that method s.ure win
How come punters never do that in the real world?




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Fahrenheit 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 2:48 PM (2485 days ago)            #13
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:

Dont forget that you do it
Others too can do it
If like you said that method s.ure win
How come punters never do that in the real world?


I never say s.ure win, bro.. All I'm saying is some will bankrupt in no time, some will make it to top 100 easily, but majority will do fairly well..

It's not an easy thing to do in the real world because of various reasons, i.e. betting limits imposed by the operators, the nature of luck against you, the fact that not many people have the resource/guts, and those who are already wealthy have no need for this .

In casino, they impose betting limits upto 10K. If you are a high roller, they invite you to play in the VIP area where either you play against other high rollers (no loss to casino) or casino take you on (but they buy insurance from insurance companies to cushion their possible losses), and various other risk managment tools.

In soccer betting, the system will alert to their sports trader if you have a huge bet, and they will either adjust the odds down drastically according to your huge bet or reject your bet.

And yes, if I can do it, others can do it too. This is the point that I'm making, because once it's attractive for everyone to do it in the Tipster Competition, it becomes a game of LUCK rather than SKILL. Unless the competition odds can be adjusted automatically when you make a huge bet, i.e. if you make a $1M bet the odds that is originally 1.90 drops to 1.50 to reflect the size of your bet.

This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 05-Jul-2017 @ 2:59 PM




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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Juan_Mata 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 2:54 PM (2485 days ago)            #14
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  		quote originally posted by wembly:

I totally agree with Fahrenheit. The main challenge here is to be able to select your surest pick from the lot.



I would say just add in one sniper bet apart from the usual 3 thunders competition
Get your sniper correct and you are on high chance to the TOP 50




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wembly 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 3:04 PM (2484 days ago)            #15
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  		quote originally posted by Juan_Mata:

I would say just add in one sniper bet apart from the usual 3 thunders competition
Get your sniper correct and you are on high chance to the TOP 50



The main aim is to place only one bet a day of a fixed amt. I think that's a test of discipline and an ability to choose your best bet. Also, I believe Fahrenheit is suggesting  this as a separate category from the normal AB TC

This message was edited by wembly on 05-Jul-2017 @ 3:11 PM



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Fahrenheit 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 3:09 PM (2484 days ago)            #16
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  		quote originally posted by Juan_Mata:

I would say just add in one sniper bet apart from the usual 3 thunders competition
Get your sniper correct and you are on high chance to the TOP 50

Another thing is that, this will encourage certain punters to employ the double-down strategy as illustrated earlier,

i.e. 1X2 Thunder bet 100K (LOSE) ---> 2X Thunder Bet 200K (LOSE) --> 1X Thunder Bet + 1X Sniper Bet 400K (WIN)

Then, as I explained earlier, this becomes a game of LUCK instead of SKILL.

 

This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 05-Jul-2017 @ 3:10 PM




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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JOGK 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 3:11 PM (2484 days ago)            #17
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
I never say s.ure win, bro.. All I'm saying is some will bankrupt in no time, some will make it to top 100 easily, but majority will do fairly well..
It's not an easy thing to do in the real world because of various reasons, i.e. betting limits imposed by the operators, the nature of luck against you, the fact that not many people have the resource/guts, and those who are already wealthy have no need for this .
In casino, they impose betting limits upto 10K. If you are a high roller, they invite you to play in the VIP area where either you play against other high rollers (no loss to casino) or casino take you on (but they buy insurance from insurance companies to cushion their possible losses), and various other risk managment tools.
In soccer betting, the system will alert to their sports trader if you have a huge bet, and they will either adjust the odds down drastically according to your huge bet or reject your bet.
And yes, if I can do it, others can do it too. This is the point that I'm making, because once it's attractive for everyone to do it in the Tipster Competition, it becomes a game of LUCK rather than SKILL. Unless the competition odds can be adjusted automatically when you make a huge bet, i.e. if you make a $1M bet the odds that is originally 1.90 drops to 1.50 to reflect the size of your bet.
This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 05-Jul-2017 @ 2:59 PM


Ok what about we change just the account part only
No more minus account
Once you reach zero
Means you are out
This way
Punters will not only think about just whack
But also learn to be discipline and management




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Fahrenheit 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 3:19 PM (2484 days ago)            #18
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:


Ok what about we change just the account part only
No more minus account
Once you reach zero
Means you are out
This way
Punters will not only think about just whack
But also learn to be discipline and management

This will cause punters to open new accounts to keep themselves in the game.

A punter who loses 10 thunder bets in a row is out within 4 competition days, so he will resort to oe ning a new account to get back into the game. Then, it become indistinguishable from giving him a minus acocunt.

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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JOGK 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 3:30 PM (2484 days ago)            #19
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
This will cause punters to open new accounts to keep themselves in the game.
A punter who loses 10 thunder bets in a row is out within 4 competition days, so he will resort to oe ning a new account to get back into the game. Then, it become indistinguishable from giving him a minus acocunt.
 

Once competition starts no more intake for punters




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Fahrenheit 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 3:35 PM (2484 days ago)            #20
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:

Once competition starts no more intake for punters

Hhmm.. this is a suggestion ya? Coz the current settings allows any new account to take part any time within the season.

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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JOGK 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 3:41 PM (2484 days ago)            #21
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
Hhmm.. this is a suggestion ya? Coz the current settings allows any new account to take part any time within the season.
 

Ya ... just like the epl competition




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Fahrenheit 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 3:46 PM (2484 days ago)            #22
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  		quote originally posted by JOGK:

Ya ... just like the epl competition

From the control standpoint, your suggestion is valid.

But i think AB forum is in the bookie affiliate business (i.e. banner advertising, etc), and as a business entity i don't think they want to discourage new accounts from joining the game while the season is ongoing. 

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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wembly 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 4:18 PM (2484 days ago)            #23
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
From the control standpoint, your suggestion is valid.

But i think AB forum is in the bookie affiliate business (i.e. banner advertising, etc), and as a business entity i don't think they want to discourage new accounts from joining the game while the season is ongoing. 



This is a separate category right bro?
If so, new account holders can still take part in the normal TC so i think your worry is unwarranted.
However, my only question : is this sniper bet rewarding tipsters for the number of winning bets or the profits at the end of it? Just to illustrate my point 50 hits of odds of 1.75 yields less  than 49 hits of 2.10 even after taking into account that one loss



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Fahrenheit 		05-Jul 2017 Wednesday 4:31 PM (2484 days ago)            #24
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  		quote originally posted by wembly:

This is a separate category right bro?
If so, new account holders can still take part in the normal TC so i think your worry is unwarranted.
However, my only question : is this sniper bet rewarding tipsters for the number of winning bets or the profits at the end of it? Just to illustrate my point 50 hits of odds of 1.75 yields less  than 49 hits of 2.10 even after taking into account that one loss

It should be based on profits, the Asian Handicap floats over time until actual kick-off, i.e. from 0:0 to 0:1/4 to 0:1/2 and the difference in hit rate is more of a result of the inequity of distribution despite the Asian Handicap being an attempt to maintain the probability distribution at 50:50.

 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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Juan_Mata 		09-Jul 2017 Sunday 2:42 PM (2481 days ago)            #25
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  		quote originally posted by wembly:

The main aim is to place only one bet a day of a fixed amt. I think that's a test of discipline and an ability to choose your best bet. Also, I believe Fahrenheit is suggesting  this as a separate category from the normal AB TC This message was edited by wembly on 05-Jul-2017 @ 3:11 PM



Two diff categories to fight for the same TOP 50 competition spot I still feel weird or rather unfair, unless there's a sniper competition by itself

By adding the sniper bet to the current competition will definitely make the whole thing more competitive, those who are disciplined can just focus on the sniper bets thru out ;)
 




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wembly 		09-Jul 2017 Sunday 4:14 PM (2480 days ago)            #26
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  		quote originally posted by Juan_Mata:

Two diff categories to fight for the same TOP 50 competition spot I still feel weird or rather unfair, unless there's a sniper competition by itself

By adding the sniper bet to the current competition will definitely make the whole thing more competitive, those who are disciplined can just focus on the sniper bets thru out ;)



I'm of the opinion that it's two separate competitions with different set of rules. The normal TC you can bet till you're deep in the red. 



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Fahrenheit 		09-Jul 2017 Sunday 4:28 PM (2480 days ago)            #27
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  		quote originally posted by Juan_Mata:

Two diff categories to fight for the same TOP 50 competition spot I still feel weird or rather unfair, unless there's a sniper competition by itself

By adding the sniper bet to the current competition will definitely make the whole thing more competitive, those who are disciplined can just focus on the sniper bets thru out ;)


One of the reasons why I do not agree with allowing thunder for the sniper competition, is that I'm looking at it from the data analytics standpoint.

By restricting Sniper Bettors to just one bet per day without being insured by thunder bets, the collective data, say 70% give ball vs 30% eat ball, will be more representative of the prudent decisons made by sniper bettors.
 




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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Juan_Mata 		09-Jul 2017 Sunday 8:23 PM (2480 days ago)            #28
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
Another thing is that, this will encourage certain punters to employ the double-down strategy as illustrated earlier,

i.e. 1X2 Thunder bet 100K (LOSE) ---> 2X Thunder Bet 200K (LOSE) --> 1X Thunder Bet + 1X Sniper Bet 400K (WIN)

Then, as I explained earlier, this becomes a game of LUCK instead of SKILL.

  This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 05-Jul-2017 @ 3:10 PM


Depends on how you see it, if you are gd with the Sniper, you won't even need to look other bets 
The cover thunder bets are just act of consolation if people failed the sniper, or I believed many of us here having more than one confident bets daily and that's when the 3 thunders come in, though the most most most confident picks still belong to the sniper bet
One still can focus mainly on the Sniper thru out the campaign if discipline enuff

Lastly me 101% support your idea and this thread, me just give some small opinions with everyone started off with the same category  :)
 




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Juan_Mata 		09-Jul 2017 Sunday 8:28 PM (2480 days ago)            #29
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  		quote originally posted by Fahrenheit:
This will cause punters to open new accounts to keep themselves in the game.

A punter who loses 10 thunder bets in a row is out within 4 competition days, so he will resort to oe ning a new account to get back into the game. Then, it become indistinguishable from giving him a minus acocunt.



Agreed, as members of AB, we tend to fight till the end
I believe there are people here started off losing to the negative balance but bounced back to the TOP 50 in the later part of the competition 




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AsianBookie 		11-Jul 2017 Tuesday 5:54 AM (2479 days ago)            #30
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justin11sg 		12-Jul 2017 Wednesday 5:23 PM (2477 days ago)            #31
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Thank you all for your comments, we will consider them carefully.



Hi Mr AB,
I would also suggest that cancellation of bets to be scrap. In real  betting world there are no such cancellation of bets... so participants will be more careful on their selections. 




Best Regards,

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