█▓▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒ ░▒░▒ Misc Bros, Please Do Read░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒▓█

Dear AB Misc Bros,

I've seen many bros before getting burned by following tipsters here in AB. My purpose of this thread is not to pinpoint at any tipster. It is known the fact that humans are greedy by nature. Seeing some tipsters on form may tempt you greatly to hitch a ride i.e. making some tidy profits. The initial ride may be rewarding, and turned even many followers on. That’s where the critical point comes in. Emotional punting comes in, punt heavily, not within own limits, seeking to borrow to punt, trying to recover from existing debts faster and all sorts of intentions, just in the hope of making fast bucks.

I forewarn you here. If you choose to undertake such a route, it’s all the risk and consequences you have to face. I would be greatly happy if you can make fast bucks out of on-form tipsters. But can you control your temptation to hit-and-run after you make a tidy sum, or would you carry on?

Soccer punting is a long journey if you wish to stay in this line. Good tipsters do not turn famous overnight, or even a short time. They are valued and recognised over years; build up their each individual name over time. They all have proven themselves over a period of time.

My personal advice to all followers of tipsters:

Treat tipsters like stocks and shares; everyday prices move up and down. But what you want is overall positive profits over time.

Selected tipsters and put them in a basket, just like a unit trust or fund.

The number of tipsters you selected are all based on your individual judgment, preferences, etc.  I would advise you to put at least some long term tipsters here.

E.g. 3 Long term tipsters with at least 2 years of posting in AB + any 1 currently on-form tipster

Then over time, e.g. over 3 months or 6 months. Evaluate your investments and re-do another evaluation to assess whether are you comfortable in keeping your previous tipsters.

It would be advisable not to change more than 50 percent of the tipsters in your portfolio every round. Or else the difference in impact cannot be seen and compared easily.


Or you could have your own analysis of picks at times; so example of a portfolio would be like:

30 percent fund – own picks
70 percent fund – tipsters picks ( 20% to 3 long term tipsters – 10% to on-form tipsters)

All these are just quoted as examples.

Good luck to all. I hope to see lesser bros posting needing help financially in MISC forum.

 

This message was edited by LYRAN on 30-Apr-2010 @ 10:49 AM

█▓▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░Laying & Backing▒░▒░▒░▒░ ▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒▓█

Dear AB Bros,

I have been pasting P2P betting principle almost every of my post and yet many bros don't understand or really bother to read i guess.

Normally we play 1 X 2, Asianhandicap, etc. We are the "BACKERS"


Eg. We buy 1 X 2 team A win@ 2.90 $100.00 . If we win, We get back $290.00 (of which $190.00 is the profit, $100 is the original capital)

But who pay you the $290.00?

They are the "LAYERS"

"LAYERS" are like the bookmakers and opposite of punters.

At a betting exchange, punters gathered all over the world to be "BACKERS" and "LAYERS"

You can choose to take on the role of a bookmaker. IF someone buys 1 X 2 win @ 2.90, you can take on the bookmaker role. If u accept the deal, you will lose 1.90 times of his amount punted from him if team A really win.

However, if team A draw or lose, you win whatever he punted. i.e. his capital.


There have been many critics in my thread about "sure win" in laying since weaker teams don't win, etc.

In laying, your liability is high. Ball is round and anything can happen. Weaker teams do not necessary will not win!

You need a good betting strategy in LAYING bets.


Eg. Lay $100 Tunisia@16.0

means if tunisia win, your loss -$1500.00.... seems horrible?

But think of another angle;

if your normal bet is $1000, use $1000 divide by the odds of 16.0 = $62.50

That means if you lay $62.50, your profit is $62.50 if tunisa don't win.

but if tunisa win, you lose $1000.00


Now what's the return?

Its $62.50 / $1000 = 6.25%

If you can achieve 6.25% return daily, isn't it attractive?

Just compare to your bank interest rate then you will know what i mean.

And what if 6.25% compounded over a period of time?

Do you know the POWERFUL EFFECT of COMPOUNDING?


However, you need a precise, disciplined plan to minimse lossess if it really happens.

Hope I have enlighten many Bros here and bring you to another dimemsional way of punting.

Cheers.

LYRAN

█▓▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░Parlay Explained & Strategies ░░░▒░▒░░▒░▒░▒░▒▓█

Dear Misc Bros,

This is another article that I have written especially for punters who are concerned about parlays. I hope this will help you to get a better insight of parlay.

Parlay & Strategies:

1. Terminology of Parlay
2. Counting
3. Strategies shared.


Parlay is defined as the accumulator of events you predicted that will occur. E.g. Parlay 3 means that 3 events lumped in a basket that all must occur in your prediction that must happen for you to earn your winnings.

There are many kinds of parlay that are available in the market; mixed parlay; Asian-handicap parlay; Fixed Odds parlay

1. Mixed parlay includes options from total goals and Asian-handicap.
2. Asian-handicap parlay includes only teams offered on the respective handicap presented.
3. Fixed Odds handicap parlay (accumulator) is a set of teams selected based on 1 X 2 odds presented i.e. Home Win – Draw – Away Win odds.


Counting of Parlay:

Normally, parlay odds are presented slightly lower than the usual odds in each individual category. E.g. If you punt team A on handicap -0.5 @ 1.81. The payout for parlay will be most likely to lower than few cents than 1.81.

Normally, there is a cap on the events of parlay. Some bookmakers will cap it at 10-parlay maximum, or they could restrict on your daily winnings.

The general rule of thumb:

e.g.
based on 4-fixed odds parlay:

1.80 X 3.20 X 1.85 X 1.86 = 19.80 X capital invested. (Total return + Capital)

A more tricky parlay will be AH parlay where there might be cases of wining half or losing half. Do check with your respective bookmakers on their terms and conditions. Generally half winning or lost is treated as half of the odds given.

E.g. Based on 4 AH parlay:

1.80 X 1.90 X 1.85 X 1.45 (1.90 -0.45 ) = 9.17 X capital invested. (Total return + Capital)

Take Note: 1.45 is calculated as win half parlay.


======================================================================

Some Personal Strategies to share:

1. Personally, a 4-6 parlay is ideal to play for. Risk-return-probability seems optimal.

1. Once teams are chosen, if you have more than 6 teams, lump according to confidence level:

First set could be the most 4-6 confident teams

2nd set could be the next 4-6 level 2 confident teams.

2. Or lump according to the timing in each of the team K.O (‘Runway Sell-away Parlay&rsquo

Arrange in a way to that the last match is standalone. E.g. 3 matches K.O at 10pm, the last match K.O at 12mn.

This strategy will allow you achieve at least some winnings through ‘sell-away’ parlay, i.e. if the 1st 3 teams have cleared the parlay, pending the last match. You can punt opposite of the team in that parlay on a single AH.

E.g.

Parlay 4 win - $600.00

1st 3 matches won, pending last match for team A to clear AH. (Team A vs Team B)

Punt $300 on Team B. (amount varies according to your confidence level.

Thus you have at least $300 in your pocket regardless of whatever result of A vs B.


2. Parlay can be used as insurance purpose, to prevent claypot of picks.

As the saying goes, it’s not easy to jackpot or claypot. But it does happen!

Eg. 4 teams chosen to play AH.

Buy insurance for these 4 teams by buying all opposite teams

4/4 Jackpot – lose only a bit on insurance parlay
3/4 – Should be winning overall, after less insurance parlay
2/4 – Might lose water money plus insurance parlay
1/4 - Worst case.
0/4 – Claypot, but JP on parlay! Could be scenario where you overall breakeven or win overall

It all depends how much you punt on the parlay. You might need a excel spreadsheet to input all these figures for you.

So, what you want is 0/4. 3/4, 4/4 Jackpot. i.e. You have 3 / 5 outcome in your advantage.


3. Slow parlay

This slow parlay refers to playing parlay over a period. This way is slow but it’s more achievable than a day parlay.
Normally punters play day-parlay. Lumping all teams in one day. This slow parlay refers to punting a small amount on a single AH team on a day (the most confident team). If that team wins, use all winnings and play the next most confident match.

E.g.

Day Parlay –

Team A + B + C +D = lose / win parlay that day

1.80 X 1.80 X 1.80 X 1.80

Slow parlay:

Day 1: Team A @1.80 (most confident team of the day)
Day 2 : Team B @1.80 (most confident team of the day) Roll the winnings from Day 1
Day 3: Team C @1.80 (most confident team of the day) Roll the winnings from Day 2
Day 4: Team D @1.80 (most confident team of the day) Roll the winnings from Day 3

█▓▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒Quotes to Punters/ Investors ░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒▓█

1. Whenever a bet is laid, be it $100 or $200, you should mentally treat it as a losing bet upfront. In this way, you're prepared to "throw" the money away. If you win, it will be then a BONUS! A good way for self consolation. Perhaps treating it as buying 4D?

2. Some punters place many bets a day, thinking ‘I can't possibly lose all!’ In reality, this can happen because anything is possible as it’s a mere probability. Then come the scenario of losing heavily and inability to pay. In other words, the total amount is greater than what you can afford to lose.

3. Losing self control and discipline. When things go wrong, many punters starting to dabble in all sorts of bets mentality or 'whacking' or double bet! Think about the consequences aftermath.

4. Take a break or rest if required. This is really important. Slowly play only a few matches to build up confidence.

5. Settlement day coming mentality: Now overall losing money, left 1 day. Tomorrow must DIE DIE play some matches and hope to recover some! Is this the pressure for a self-created hope?

6. Overall winning or losing since first day you started punting? You keep track? You keep stats on hit rate personally? In long run, most punters lose overall. Only thing advantage is unless you have really big capital to roll for luck

█▓▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒░▒A Thinker to Punters ░▒░▒░░▒░▒░░▒░▒░▒░▒▓█

Dear Fellow ABers,

I believe that everyone here wish to see more money rolling in from soccer punting and make some profit at the end of the day.

This is my personal opinion with regards to soccer punters.

1. Betting without analysing

No time to analyse, don't know how to analyse, believe in trying your own luck because soccer is all about fixed match; kelong.

OPINION:

Do analyse because not all soccer matches are fixed and kelong. Develop your method of analysis through experience, this will developed your own unique soccer betting methodology, and in long run, will be independent upon yourself. You will only treat your favourite tipster(s) as a form of reference rather than reliance. Modify your betting style according to differing situations. 

 2. Following your favourite tipster/ tipsters.

 A good tipster is a very subjective topic, because different people have different views on how a good tipster should be. Some may view on percentage of hits; others may view on a consistent hit rate, etc. However, a good tipster has its own down-form transition period.  At that period, it’s best that those supporters provide encouragement to them. Think of the time that they have helped you win in the past.

OPINION:

You could follow the currently on-form tipster/s and follow his picks and switch accordingly. Or you could pick a few consistent tipster/s and serve as a reference. E.g., if you choose 3 favourite tipsters and all 3 tipsters pick that particular team, go ahead then. The best would be to establish own pick before looking at your favourite tipster's picks. Or pick tipster according to their specialty in their leagues.

3. Betting with analysing.

Some may succeed in become a 'good tipster' while others are still working hard on it. To those who tried hard and failed, please do not give up. Keep on trying. In today context of soccer, many factors come into deciding which team to choose. It’s a mind game with the bookmakers. Instinct and luck still play a minority factor in decision. Not in factoring the "K" factor which normal punters like me and you wouldn't know that game is fixed unless we have insider news. 

You can choose to use a combination of some or all depending on time management. It’s a battle against the bookmakers since day 1 when you undertake this route. The key to success is about time, money and emotional discipline. This article is written to sparkle your thoughts, be it in a direct or indirect way which may harness your direction/thinking.  For your perusal,

Thanks.

█▓▒░▒░▒░▒░▒Arbitraging FIXED ODDS: A RISKLESS METHOD ░░▒░▒░░▒░▒░▒░▒▓█

Different Online Bookermakers have different 1 X 2 payout of HOME WIN, DRAW, AWAY WIN

How can we punt in a way that we can earn riskless profit?

This is through taking advantage of difference in the payout of different bookmakers.

Example:

WEBSITE A :

Home team A vs  Away team B

1.90 3.35 5.3

WEBSITE B :

Home team A vs  Away team B

1.85 3.60 4.9

WEBSITE C :

Home team A vs  Away team B

1.83 3.50 5.75 

The best odds offered on these 3 websites are:

WEBSITE A 1.90

WEBSITE B 3.60

WEBSITE C 5.75

As a result, a bet of $0.53 gives a 1$ return ( 1 / 1.90 = 0.53). 

For the draw, a bet of $0.28 gives a $1return (1 / 3.60 = 0.28)

For the away win, a bet of $0.17 gives a $1 return (1 / 5.75 = 0.17)

If we add all these bets (0.53 + 0.28 + 0.17) we get 0.98.

Thus, you need to bet $0.98 in order to get a 1$ for sure.

If we take the inverse of 0.98   (1 / 0.98 =1.02), you'll see that for every $1 you bet, you will get $1.02 back.

You have just profited 2 cents of riskless return regardless of the match outcome.

Sometimes you might catch a better steal than this which can be more than 2 cents profit risklessly.

 Personal Comments:

1. Time is the essence in this method which you need close monitoring. Some softwares could do this job but again cost is incurred.
2. A time consuming method for the high risk appetite punters who rather punt on other options. More suitable for low risk punters who wants a small tidy profit.
3. Time vs. Return. The amount of time invested might not justify the mere few percent of riskless return for some punters; a judgmental call

This is my normal punting style:

This message was edited by LYRAN on 12-Jul-2010 @ 11:44 PM

The rationale behind is to produce picks should be only the basis of substantial ‘Value” or should I say a valued punt.  This differs from the conventional punters behaviour which are enticed or excited about tipping websites providing picks on a daily basis.

What bookmakers love are these punters are having such mindset which falls into their trap and make these easy preys for them.

Next, the reality and truth about hitrate which is always on punters’ agenda. I ever heard of tipping website/tipsters offering a an incredible 80% hitrate! To what extend how true or credible this is?

I have been in this trade for 1 2 years, coming to 13.  The answer to the above can be both right and wrong in fact with the below examples

1. Hitting 8/10 matches.

2. Hitting 80/100 matches

3. Hitting 800/1000 matches

The above examples all represent 80% hitrate. But which is credible? Obviously the answer is example 1.

The underlying issue we should be looking is substaintability besides hitrate. Can anyone substain a 80% hitrate in 1000 matches? The truth is a “NO”, “NO and “NO”! 

Being a mathematician, a really good tipster can be defined as having 57% hitrate! You might find me crazy but this is the truth. But having say that, the criteria is based on at least 1000 matches.

Hope I have shared some light to the reality of soccer punting.

Think about the next time you heard hitrate of 80%!

Thanks.

Best Regards,

Lyran

This message was edited by LYRAN on 08-May-2011 @ 3:11 PM

Coming Soon: Watch Out for this space

Coming Soon: Watch Out for this space

Coming Soon: Watch Out for this space

quote originally posted by TRACKING:

I wouldn't pinpoint any tipster for reference. For newbies to AB forum, I would strongly recommend you to pick from the AB Tipsters list..

quote originally posted by profi:

Put some thinking caps to the question and maybe you can shed some light and share the next time.


 

quote originally posted by LYRAN:

Lyran, your riskless method mentioned about obtaining the best payouts among 3 different websites. What is your view for punters with only 1 ?
 

quote originally posted by Yunice2011:

With one account, it's not achievable. Unless you invest in early plate which gives you a lose less and before KO, the rate changes to win less.

On Monday Early Plate

E.g $100 on Team A +1/4 Lose 95

 
On Tuesday,

Team B payout is -1/4 Lose 95.

In this case, you can invest another $100 buck on Team B and cover team A you have bought.

Whatever result, you will gain.

Hope you get the picture.

Best Regards,

Lyran

 

it seems impossible to predict the movement of the odds.

quote originally posted by Yunice2011:

You have done your analysis early and punt on team A.

The on actual day. Team A coincidentally move down thus you can decide the cover A by punting B.

This is the riskless profit.

quote originally posted by LYRAN:

It takes alot of patience and experience to accurately predict which match will have such odds movement. But on the other hand, i am still using the fixed adds against handicap payout to predict. Is that ok ?


 

quote originally posted by Yunice2011:

Normally fixed odds payout is less few cents than AH. Very simply to compared by taking payout for -1/2 against 1x2.

There's this theory that holds that if 1x2 payout is of 'significant' difference to AH payout. Chances team will clear AH and taking into account of 1 X 2 away team payout.

Basically, these payout and odds are formulated by mathematicans working for the bookmakers.

The derivations of such odds is an art itself. There's too much I could share in one article.

Cheers,

Lyran

But Lyran, if the chart was used to predict upset matches, don't you think its much more profitable ?

i understand your concern in sharing so much informations. I have done alot of reading in many sites too.

For now, the chart is the only tool which i am relying on.

Hit rate: approx. 60 % to 65 %

quote originally posted by Yunice2011:

Upset chances are less than 50%. It's a number game. Good yeild if you can find consistent upset.

Charting contribute around 40% success, 30% experience and element of luck.

Hit rate is not really important. I should say the first topic that punters always mentioned about is hit rate.

quote originally posted by LYRAN:

please ignore my earlier post if you have read it. i think no workable.

 

This message was edited by Yunice2011 on 12-Aug-2010 @ 11:24 PM

thanks bro lyran for the info above. is interesting n beneficial. hearfelt appreciation.

quote originally posted by Yunice2011:

Hi, are you refering of Fixed odds to AH?

Regards,

Lyran
 

Hi Lyran, please kindly advise if you are able to share the chart here. Thanks.

quote originally posted by Yunice2011:

Hi, let me find the chart and revert.

Thanks.
 

well said bro lyran. I do agree with your statement.

Cheers

In the most simplest perspective, who care about hitrate when you can have a 30-40% hitrate but at end of the day, you are in the profit zone.

Cheers.

Lyran