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Hopefully the rest of the week will be better!

Did some test picks of my own (LESSON 3) at half time... Shall share my results

Case 1

1-0        Mypa           0-0.5       1.02    2-2.5    o1.06

 HT       Vassa                         0.88                u 0.82

I took the liberty to subtract the TG offered by the current goal total: 2.25 - 1 = 1.25

Applying lesson 3: Bet Over,

AHO must be 1-1.5 of TG which in this case = 0.25 : 1.25

Give ball < Over ball AND BOTH > 1.00

VERDICT: TAKE OVER 2.25 

RESULT:FT 1-0  [Can't seem to find out what's wrong here]

Case 2

0 - 0   Kuusyi Lahti         0.0    1.21      1.50    o 0.98

HT     JaPs                              0.66                 u 0.84

TG was straightforward : 1.5

 AHO must be 1-1.5 of TG which in this case = 0 : 1.5  

Applying lesson 3: Bet Under,

AH > 1.05 and Give > Over and Over > Under

VERDICT: TAKE UNDER 1.5

RESULT:FT 0-1 

CASE 3 

1-0     IF Sylvia       0.50    1.20    2.5-3   o1.13

HT     IK Sleipner               0.71               u0.74

During HT, it change handicap once

1-0    IF Sylvia      0/0.5   0.89    2.5-3   o1.13

ht      IK Sleipner             0.99               u0.74

I applied what I previously did in Case 2 (I used the first set of odds before the Change)

TG= 2.75 - 1 = 1.75

AHO : TG = 0.5 : 1.75 (within 1.5)

AH > 1.05 and Give > Over and Over > Under

VERDICT: TAKE UNDER 2.75

FT : 2-2  [That change of handicap towards the end of HT, killed the test bet, in my opinion]

CASE 4

0-1     Randers FC            0.5-1     1.03    2.5-3  o1.07

HT     FC Vestsjaelland                  0.87              u0.81

Similar to CASE 1,

TG = 2.75 -1 = 1.75

AH : TG = 0.75 : 1.75 (within 1.5)

Give < Over AND BOTH >1.00

VERDICT: TAKE OVER 2.75

FT: 2-1    [ I felt confident enough midway through the half to post a running pick of o2.5 in running forum]

CASE 5

0-0    IF Sirius FK       0-0.5     1.08     1.50    o 1.02

HT    IK Frej                             0.80                u 0.84

NOTE THE SIMILARITY WITH CASE 2 (only the AH different) and CASE 3 (only that the handicap DID NOT change)

AH: TG = 0.25 : 1.50 (within 1.5)

AH > 1.05 and Give > Over and Over > Under

VERDICT: TAKE UNDER 1.5

FT : 0-0   [No change of AH / TG during HT, stabilised odds all the way through HT contribute to this correct pick]

In conclusion, I like to thank bro Klavier for showing us the way it's done in order for me to come up with these case studies. 

Ball is round as presented in Case 1. 

I personally believe the lessons CAN apply to half time and we should endeavour to find more examples to test on.

I didnt check the odds at the start, could probably contribute to all the FT results I have. 

Fellow bros, please comment on what are the flaws I have and Improvements for me.

Thanks!

LET'S HUAT TOGETHER!

this is my opinion,

before KO, TG open handicap is the lowest of 3 Tier Handicap, meanwhile Home team is giving only 0.25 ball.

conclusion for this is like bro villapark said, home team may be winning by one goal since TG is the lowest.

for your case, you staked for Over 2.25 when in running score is 1-0, it's too risky for 2.25 (maybe reasonable for Over 1.75 or Over 1.5 since there's another 45 min left for the game to produce goal, probability case)

otherwise, bro KJG's lesson i think is not for in-play strategies since the water money is swanging based on the current game happened on the pitch.

there's another strategy for odds movement decoding for in-running games.

quote originally posted by villapark36:

You base this on Thailand 3-tier bro? 

Good luck for this one. 

Need your advice on the 2 following Estonia matches:

Paide Linnameeskond v Trans Narva

Tallinna Kalev v Stilamae Kalev

Both away teams give ball -0.75, with Trans Narva priced at 0.48...

Good to give?

This message was edited by bigArsenalfan on 22-May-2012 @ 8:37 PM

This message was edited by bigArsenalfan on 22-May-2012 @ 8:40 PM

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Bro, can double check with you Iceland 3-tiers? I receive conflicting information from the threads I have read so far, and regarding your example, Fram TG of o 2.5 is even lower than Stjarnan's 2.75? 

By theory, Fram should clear handicap too isn't it?

By the way, whats your take on Estonia today? Many identical odds for 2 matches... Bookie trap is it? I can find a possible bet for all 5 matches! 

This message was edited by bigArsenalfan on 22-May-2012 @ 8:50 PM

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Ok here's 1 that I feel confident about:-

Ullensaker Kisa - 0.5 Strategy 1

KO at 0200H 

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BIG CONGRATS! 

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Ultimately, they ended up as test picks. Sigh. 

Never mind , shall fight on with Ullensaker -0.5 (Strategy 1)!

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Here bro. 

I found in among the threads during the lessons and recorded down in my records.

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Morning villapark bro,

Nice pick on Japan there, good luck!

Found

Al Ittihad Jeddah
Persepolis Tehran

Home team - 0.75

Lowest of 3 tiers -> 2.5,2.75,3 (Saudi Arabia league)

Given the experiments of your previous few picks, you think its safe to take Under ?

Chiasso
Biel Bienne

Home team -0.5; TG 2.75

Lowest of 3 tiers -> 2.75,3,3.25 (Swiss Challenge League)

Similar to last night's Ullensaker game --> Home team AH =-0.5 ; TG 3 (Only difference)

Take Chiasso -0.5

This message was edited by bigArsenalfan on 23-May-2012 @ 2:36 PM

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