Odds Reading Lesson 1 Continued 4 - AsianBookie.Com Forums

21-May 2012 Monday 4:24 AM (4360 days ago)

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4th episode of the 1st Lesson taught by bro KJG.

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BogdanT

21-May 2012 Monday 4:31 AM (4360 days ago)

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The first match to monitor:

Patronato Parana - Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Argentina B)

All the criteria are met:

Over Odds / O/U / Under Odds
0.92 / 2/2.5 / 0.90

Patronato / Handicap / Aldosivi
0.76 / 0/0.5 / 1.08

The match starts in 30 minutes. I will monitor it and if they stay like this in the next 25 minutes, I will take it, as it fits perfectly!

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BogdanT

21-May 2012 Monday 4:58 AM (4359 days ago)

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Changes in odds right before KO, but all the criteria are met!

I will take it!

Good luck!

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villapark36

21-May 2012 Monday 5:01 AM (4359 days ago)

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Good Luck Bro. Found out that you can make much more money by using the other Lessons. I only bet on giving ball now, not on Over anymore.

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BogdanT

21-May 2012 Monday 5:14 AM (4359 days ago)

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Thank you Bro! Which lesson do you follow for the give ball strategy? I was busy lately and did not have time to analyze.

Cheers and good luck!

This message was edited by BogdanT on 21-May-2012 @ 5:14 AM

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bigArsenalfan

21-May 2012 Monday 7:47 AM (4359 days ago)

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Hi bro BogdanT and villapark36

I have been observing your thread with the greatest of interest, will endeavour to find and help out in the quest to kill the bookies!

I have tried test picks, and I think the most effective for me, is take Give Ball when TG plate is on lowest tier of 3. How about you guys?

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bigArsenalfan

21-May 2012 Monday 5:10 PM (4359 days ago)

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Hi fellow bros,

I will be posting any finds in this post alone.

Match 1
2330 HJK Helsinki vs Honka Espoo

Satisfy 3 conditions but 1: Overs < Unders since opening. Check worth taking?

Match 2
0245 St Patricks Athletic vs Dundalk

Looking good

This message was edited by bigArsenalfan on 21-May-2012 @ 5:26 PM

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naga288

21-May 2012 Monday 7:40 PM (4359 days ago)

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quote originally posted by bigArsenalfan:

Hi bro BogdanT and villapark36

I have been observing your thread with the greatest of interest, will endeavour to find and help out in the quest to kill the bookies!

I have tried test picks, and I think the most effective for me, is take Give Ball when TG plate is on lowest tier of 3. How about you guys?

logically, when home team giving more than 1 ball and TG is the lowest of 3 Tier, it's most than often that away team didn't score anyway because of the lowest of 3 Tier.

and mostly bookies set up the price for giving ball is too lower than over ball water money, some of matches with this odds, home can cleared and some can't clear (mostly for AHO 1.25 and 1.50 and for romania liga 1)

i believe there's some method and hope who's expert to overcome bookies expectation will share the method here as bro KJG did with his odds decoding lesson.

19:00 ! Live	Persema Malang Persijap Jepara Draw	1.35	1-1.5	0.81	2.5-3	o	0.68	o	0.92	1.79	0.50	0.80	1-1.5	o	0.91
		7.80		1.03		u	1.16	e	0.94	6.20		1.04		u	0.91
		4.00								2.51

look decent for this.. huatttt

This message was edited by naga288 on 21-May-2012 @ 7:44 PM

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bigArsenalfan

21-May 2012 Monday 9:48 PM (4359 days ago)

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quote originally posted by naga288:

19:00 ! Live	Persema Malang Persijap Jepara Draw	1.35	1-1.5	0.81	2.5-3	o	0.68	o	0.92	1.79	0.50	0.80	1-1.5	o	0.91
		7.80		1.03		u	1.16	e	0.94	6.20		1.04		u	0.91
		4.00								2.51

look decent for this.. huatttt

This message was edited by naga288 on 21-May-2012 @ 7:44 PM

CONGRATS BRO!

I agree with what you said. Hopefully the odds don't catch me out on what I'm laying down tonight. Quick question: Do you whats the 3 tiers for Finland Kakkonen? Saw a match favourable for EAT but not sure which tier it is in...

This message was edited by bigArsenalfan on 21-May-2012 @ 9:53 PM

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naga288

21-May 2012 Monday 10:17 PM (4359 days ago)

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quote originally posted by naga288:

19:00
! Live

Persema Malang
Persijap Jepara
Draw

1.35

1-1.5

0.81

2.5-3

0.68

0.92

1.79

0.50

0.80

1-1.5

0.91

7.80

1.03

1.16

0.94

6.20

1.04

0.91

4.00

2.51

look decent for this.. huatttt

just 1 minute before the plate going into in-play, the odds change for giving water money exceed 0.85 , FT 2-1

bookies trap

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bigArsenalfan

21-May 2012 Monday 10:18 PM (4359 days ago)

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quote originally posted by bigArsenalfan:

Hi fellow bros,

I will be posting any finds in this post alone.

Match 1
2330 HJK Helsinki vs Honka Espoo

Satisfy 3 conditions but 1: Overs < Unders since opening. Check worth taking?

Match 2
0245 St Patricks Athletic vs Dundalk

Looking good

This message was edited by bigArsenalfan on 21-May-2012 @ 5:26 PM

Disregard this 2, BOTH matches changed handicap / TG

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bigArsenalfan

21-May 2012 Monday 10:21 PM (4359 days ago)

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quote originally posted by naga288:

just 1 minute before the plate going into in-play, the odds change for giving water money exceed 0.85 , FT 2-1

bookies trap

Not much ROCK SOLID matches tonight.

I'm going with some matches from other lessons.

MyPa -0.5
Fram Reykjavik -0.75
Shelbourne -0.25

Standby till KO

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naga288

21-May 2012 Monday 10:22 PM (4359 days ago)

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quote originally posted by bigArsenalfan:

CONGRATS BRO!

I agree with what you said. Hopefully the odds don't catch me out on what I'm laying down tonight. Quick question: Do you whats the 3 tiers for Finland Kakkonen? Saw a match favourable for EAT but not sure which tier it is in...

This message was edited by bigArsenalfan on 21-May-2012 @ 9:53 PM

dun know for Finland Kakkonen bro, but it is 2.75 highest for finland Veikkausliga
CMIIW

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villapark36

21-May 2012 Monday 10:30 PM (4359 days ago)

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Hey bigArsenalfan and Bogdan

I'm winning with give ball strategy the following way:

1. Lowest of the 3 Tier given, Home Team gives ball!

Example today: MyPa vs VPS Vaasa
Looking at plate: MyPa -0.25 Over 2.25
3 Tier Handicap 2012 Finland Veikkausliga: 2.25, 2.5, 2.75
Pick: MyPa -0.25 (Bookies don't expect many goals, will be a thin win, home team got best chances to win by one goal maybe)

2. Over higher than the highest 3 Tier Handicap, Favourites giving big ball!

Example today: Monaghan United FC vs Shamrock Rovers FC
Looking at plate: Shamrock Rovers FC -1.25 Over 2.75
3 Tier Handicap 2012 Ireland Premier League 2, 2.25, 2.5
Pick: Shamrock Rovers FC -1.25 (Rovers are the bookies big favorites and giving a huge ball for an away team! But bookies also expect many goals [more goals than normal for this league!] so it could be possible that the bookies favourites clear the handicap by 2 or 3 goal advantage!

3. Bigest 3 Tier or middle 3 Tier given, Home gives 3/4 ball!
If the biggest 3 Tier given, you normally eat ball. But in this case I never do. It seems to be a bookie trap. They want you to take eat ball, because for us punters eating a 3/4 ball seems huge. Sorry, I got no good examples for today.

Example1 yesterday: Junior Barranquilla vs Independiente Medellin
Looking at plate: Junior Barranquilla -0.75 Over 2.5
3 Tier Handicap 2012 Colombiano-Apertura: 2, 2.25, 2.5
Pick: Junior Barranquilla -0.75 (FT 1-0) Win

Example2 yesterday: FH Hafnarfjordur vs Breidablik UBK
Looking at plate: FH Hafnarfjordur -0.75 Over 3
3 Tier Handicap 2012 Iceland Premier Division: 2.75, 3, 3.25
Pick: FH Hafnarfjordur -0.75 (FT 3-0) Win

Example3 yesterday: SC Internacional RS vs Coritiba PR
Looking at plate: SC Internacional RS -0.75 Over 2.5
3 Tier Handicap 2012 Brazil Serie A: 2.25, 2.5, 2.75
Pick: SC Internacional RS -0.75 (FT 2-0) Win

I also found out these four things, if home team gives -0.75 ball:

1. Mostly the home team takes the lead very fast (first half)
--> First team to score: Home --> HT/FT: Home/Home
2. Mostly only the handicap giving team scores
--> Both teams to score (goal/goal) --> No
3. Mostly the goalline is Under (Look at examples above)
4. Mostly the home team can clear handicap full
--> Home Team wins by 2 or three goals

These three strategies shown above work out fine for me (85+% hitrate so far). You should wait till kick-off, because the handicaps and goallines often change till kick-off. If there are changes, skip match as always. Don't bet on every match fitting the criteria! Also look at league table, team form etc. There are enough matches fitting the criteria every day. So pick the ones that look best to you.

Today I'm trying my luck on:
MyPa -0.25 (strategy 1)
Shamrock Rovers -1.25 (strategy 2)
Assyriska -0.75 (strategy 3)

Give it a try, but don't blame me, if it doesn't work for you. Like I said, for me it works out fine.
Best of Luck bros and happy winning!

This message was edited by villapark36 on 21-May-2012 @ 10:37 PM

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bigArsenalfan

21-May 2012 Monday 10:44 PM (4359 days ago)

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Bro Villapark,

Thanks for the good sharing! I will try to keep this in mind. Thanks bro

My picks are probably based on your strategy 1.

Good luck bro with your picks!

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villapark36

21-May 2012 Monday 10:47 PM (4359 days ago)

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Edit:
Found an example for strategy 3 starting in 15 min!
FC Khimki vs FC Yenisey Krasnoyarsk
Plate: FC Khimki -0.75 Over 2.25
3 Tier Russia 2012 First Division: 2, 2.25, 2.5
Pick: FC Khimki -0.75

Good Luck

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bigArsenalfan

21-May 2012 Monday 10:53 PM (4359 days ago)

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No plate bro! Best of luck!

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naga288

21-May 2012 Monday 11:07 PM (4359 days ago)

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bro villapark, based on your strategy, do we need to look and analyze for the price both giving and over ball water money?

and for giving 0.25 ball, should we just look for FAVOURITE as they play at HOME? what about if FAVOURITE play as AWAY and they give 0.25 or 0.5 ball with the lowest 3 Tier given.

and conclusion for Favourite play as Away and giving 3/4 ball, and TG is the Highest or Mid of 3 Tier, should we take it or not? or it become a bit risky since they play as Away

thanks bro..

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villapark36

21-May 2012 Monday 11:19 PM (4359 days ago)

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I don't look at the water money prices of Handicap and Over and I don't compare them really. Like MyPa today... Taking a team -0.5 with 2.02 for a win seems high, but I really believe they can do it. I think many people will take their opponent Vaasa, because of the lower water money and the 1/2 advantage. Believing in the teams you take to clear the handicap is most important I think.

This message was edited by villapark36 on 21-May-2012 @ 11:27 PM

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naga288

21-May 2012 Monday 11:53 PM (4359 days ago)

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quote originally posted by villapark36:

Hi naga288
I got the best results by betting only on home teams giving ball. Doesn't mean you cant bet with the strategies shown by me on away teams, but in my eyes it's always a bit risky. Yesterday I bet on PSG -0.75 and Defensor Sporting -0.75 both playing away. They have been the bookies favourites, but it was very risky to take them. Defensor Sporting got a red card and won in last minute 1-0. PSG winning their game seemed to be very clear before kick-off. They had to win if the wanted to become french champions. But their opponent got the lead early and PSG came back in track very late. Both bets won in the end half, but it was more than risky and I had to pray hard for them to be cleared.
I think best is to bet on home teams in all three strategies. They always got that important home advantage with their own fans in their back.

I don't look at the water money prices of Handicap and Over and I don't compare them really. Like MyPa today... Taking a team -0.5 with 2.02 for a win seems high, but I really believe they can do it. I think many people will take their opponent Vaasa, because of the lower water money and the 1/2 advantage. Believing in the teams you take to clear the handicap is most important I think.

This message was edited by villapark36 on 21-May-2012 @ 11:27 PM

okay, dicipline is the most important, i do make a profit for monday till wednesday games, but entering thursday till saturday night, i see my balance turn to red, like the odds water money hahaha

So do you know the 3 Tier for Norway 2nd Div, Finland Kakkonen and Finland Ykkonen bro?

This message was edited by naga288 on 21-May-2012 @ 11:56 PM

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villapark36

22-May 2012 Tuesday 12:04 AM (4359 days ago)

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2012 Finland Ykkonen 2.25, 2.5, 2.75
Not sure of the other two leagues, so I better don't post!

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villapark36

22-May 2012 Tuesday 1:30 AM (4359 days ago)

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quote originally posted by villapark36:

Pick died (FT 0-0), but again UNDER. Maybe we should keep this in mind.

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naga288

22-May 2012 Tuesday 2:01 AM (4359 days ago)

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quote originally posted by villapark36:

Pick died (FT 0-0), but again UNDER. Maybe we should keep this in mind.

no worry bro, still, the ball is round

since the strategy can give 80% yield, so far so good, keep analyzing.. huatt

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smile00 Find all Topics Started by smile00 Find all Posts by smile00 Follow / Unfollow PM smile00		22-May 2012 Tuesday 4:10 PM (4358 days ago)	#24
Junior Member Posts: 3 Liked By: 1 Joined: 30 Apr 12 Tipsters Championship: Player has not started	how to know or count 3 tier? sorry coz I'am newbie.
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bigArsenalfan

22-May 2012 Tuesday 9:14 PM (4358 days ago)

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2 match i spot today.

Both from Estonia with regards to lesson 1

FC Viljandi v JK Nomme Kalju

Kuressaare v Flora Tallinn

Both fits the criteria.. however, its the away team giving BIG ball of 2 in both matches.

Any opinions?

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22-May 2012 Tuesday 11:43 PM (4358 days ago)

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Recap on lesson 1...

"1. The total goal given must be the highest of the 3 Tier Handicap

2. Opening odds and closing odds must be under same condition where give ball water money is lower than under ball regardless of how the water money drop or rise.

3. Total goal and asian handicap must remain same level.

4. The Over odd water money must be higher than Under odd water money. Cannot both sides win same odd. *IMPORTANT*

5. Odds are based on many famous and major bookies."

Just a quick question.. Over must be higher than Under at both Opening/Closing or just Closing?

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villapark36