dont need this just need eyes to do it

see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557

This is what i research recently, Arbitrage. Since you bet on the same bookie, you can't get sure winning (lock profit). Bookies always set the odds which is result more than 100% as they got the profit from the surplus percentage (bookies edge)

example ( decimal/euro odds ) :

Home 2.10

Away 3.50

Draw 3.10

this kinds of odds will generate 108.45%. this means 8.45% is the bookie's profit. no matter what punters bet on which side, the bookie always make a profit. This is called Dutch Book.

Odds moving up and down is based on money line and elapsed running time, but still, the odds will generate more than 100% calculation.

Bookies which is use the same software plattform, then they will display the same odds, ofc that is because they use one sotware plattform. there are some software plattform in the sportsbooks industry, but the odds different is slightly around 2-5%, still you can't arbitrage between 2 or 3 or more bookies.

Ok, now let's say we're doing arbitrage from 2 possibility outcome : Home or Away, this can be done

Example 2 : (First Half game)

Home 3.60

Away 3.00

Draw 2.10

Stake : $ 1000

Bet on Home : $ 454 * 3.60 = $ 1,634.4 (Potential Winning), minus your initial stake $1,000 = $643.4 (net winning)

Bet on Away : $ 545 * 3.00 = $ 1,635 (Potential Winning), minus your initial stake $1,000 = $635 (net winning)

Formula :

1 / 3.60 (Home Odds) = 0.278 (A)

1 / 3.00 (Away Odds)  = 0.333 (B)

A + B = 0.611 (C) , next step is :

Initial Stake on Home : A / C = 0.454 * $1,000 = $454

Initial Stake on Away : B / C = 0.545 * $1,000 = $545

whenever the result for first half game Home win OR Away win, this will make you profit for $ 635

Assuming Home scored at minutes 26', well 50% you save with the profit. what about then Away team scored in last minute?? your $ 1000 will blow up. If this scenario is happen, simply lock your profit by place a bet on Draw after Home team scored first.

Nah, how many stake should you put on the Draw? it depends on how many profit you want.

After you have $ 635 profit in hand at minutes 26', let's say again you want to secure $ 300 for net profit.

So, the stake you have to put on Draw is $ 335 (635-300), at which odds ??

ok, we calculate again, the formula is like this :

Potential Winning / Initial Stake on Draw = 1,635 / 335 = 4.88 - you should bet on Draw at odds 4.88

Draw 4.88 * $335 = $1,634.8 (Potential Winning), minus your total initial stake $1,000 = $634.8 (net winning)

Let's calculate for overall :

Bet on Home : $ 454 * 3.60 = $ 1,634.4

Bet on Away : $ 545 * 3.00 = $ 1,635

Bet on Draw : $ 335 * 4.88 = $ 1,634.8

Total initial stake on this 3 bet is $ 1,334. Your winning for each outcome is $ 1,635. So your profit is $ 300

the odds ofc not strictly come up at 4.88, it depends on how strong the probability Away team will scored and how many minutes left for the end of fisrt half game. If the Away team is strong enough to scored and you fear they will scored soon, simply higher your stake on Draw in order to matched the running odds with Potential Winning.

This message was edited by naga288 on 01-May-2012 @ 6:51 AM

quote originally posted by EarningExtra$:

there's always a risk in everything, also in investment. so our task is to minimize the risk. you're right, how about there's no goal in first half game, well, before i placed a bet, i did research and choose what league mostly produce at least 1 goal at first half. Based on stats, greece league and france league are mostly produce less goal at first half, so i avoid this league (exceptional for high favorite team, i do speculation on this)

before the match kickoff, the odds 1x2 calculation usually offer profit 30% - 50% (middle to highly confidence produce goal) and more than 60% profit (middle to high NO GOAL)

tonight match, AC Milan offer 1.63 while Atalanta offer 8.50. This odds will generate only 36.77% profit, the match between team which is confidence produce at least 1 goal will generate small profit.

another one example :

Brest offer 3.60 while Toulouse offer 3.15. This odds will generate 68% profit, but how confidence you will sure the game will produce at least 1 goal since the bookies offer 60% high profit before kickoff? research and watching odds movement will help you to do that.

At the second half, Brest offer 2.91 and Toulouse offer 2.46, generate 33.31% (small profit ofc in 90 mins game plus injury time, the probability for 1 goal is high - bookies expectation)

I tend to bet for the game which generate around 50% before kickoff, and then i will wait till the game running for 10-15 mins, usually the odds will offer more than 60% when the match is very tight to produce 1 goal. Remember, goal at last minute is very high to occur.

60% or more profit will give advantage for long run.

1st bet, stake $1000, lose

2nd bet, stake $1000, win $600

3rd bet, stake $1000, win $600

1 lose  2 win (aka 1/2), you still profit @200

if you bet when the odds generate 50% profit, 1/2 wil give break even point (1 lose $1000, 2 win $1000)

if you bet when the odds generate 30% profit, 1/2 you still lose $400, you need 1/4 to cover and you still profit $200

and check it out in livescore website, in one whole day games offered, how many game ends with 0-0 result in first half ?? and how many game produce goal at last minutes?

back again to bro EarningExtra$ question, for me, i will let it lose. If the Under 0.5 odds still at least minimize my loses, i will bet on Under 0.5, but usually Under odds is very low when the game is running at +38 mins (0.4 - 0.2 HK odds).

This message was edited by naga288 on 02-May-2012 @ 5:26 PM

there is some websites out there telling you which bookies offer the best price for a match.

but u need to open many bookmakers account and the payout is probably 1 to 5 percent more on average. However, it is sure win though.

i read again to bro EarningExtra$ questions, i think you misundertand with my explanation above. We can buy draw after the first goal is scored, why? in order to lock the profit which is 50% already in hand.

many games also ended with 1-1 scored at first half, this means when score is 1-0 or 0-1, you can bet on draw to anticipate 1-1 scored at end. just like trading, you place Stop Loss in forex, and you buy draw at soccer.

after one of both team scored, the draw odds will be high. except for underdog scored first, then the draw odds is not so high since favorite will strongly scored to equalize mostly when they play at home.